All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
23°C
YesNo
25°C
YesNo
22°C
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
24°C
YesNo
26°C
YesNo
27°C or higher
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
18°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
17°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Latest meteorological data indicates a significant 'overheating' bias in the market. Sources like Google Weather/IBM and Weather25 have revised their March 21 forecast down to 20°C-22°C (68°F-72°F) with 'cloudy with rain patches,' conditions that suppress diurnal heating. In contrast, AccuWeather maintains a bullish 24°C (76°F) forecast. Given the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) is the resolution source and their official outlook mentions upcoming rain, the fair value center of gravity should shift left from the market's current 24-25°C favor towards the 22-23°C range. Both 22°C and 23°C are currently severely undervalued.
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Movers
From early morning to afternoon on March 18, 2026, the market underwent a violent recalibration. The price of 26°C crashed from 30c to 9.5c, indicating a capitulation of the extreme heat thesis. Simultaneously, 22°C spiked from 3.6c to 17.65c before settling back to 7.65c, while 23°C oscillated wildly between 10c and 29c. This high volatility suggests capital is rotating from the overvalued warm buckets (25/26) toward cooler buckets (22/23) in response to updated rain forecasts, though a new pricing equilibrium has not yet formed.
Divergence
Significant consensus divergence exists. Polymarket prices currently imply 24°C and 25°C are the most likely outcomes (combined probability >50%), aligning with AccuWeather's bullish forecast. However, other major data sources like Google Weather and TimeAndDate have downgraded their forecasts to 21°C or 22°C. Market pricing is lagging behind these newer 'cooling' signals, creating a massive discrepancy in the 21-23°C range.
