Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is somewhat niche. While daily weather forecasts are common, using them as a quantified prediction market target adds a level of novelty.

April 7, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of '18°C or below' surged from 37.5c to 93.5c, while '19°C' and '20°C' plunged significantly from 33.5c and 22.5c respectively to single digits. This was driven by continuous short-term weather model updates confirming the substantial impact of a cooler air mass over the Paris region, drastically lowering the expected high temperatures.

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a niche prediction market. While weather is a common daily topic, trading on exact temperature bounds holds some novelty and primarily attracts data model enthusiasts, distinct from mainstream political or sports markets.

April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the prices of the 22°C and 23°C options surged from 15c and 16c to over 30c, while the prices of higher temperature options like 25°C and 26°C plummeted by more than 10c. This is because as the forecast date approaches, weather models converged, ruling out extreme high temperatures and tightly locking expectations into the 22°C-23°C range. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 21°C option dropped from 19c to 4.5c before rebounding to 14c, driven by short-term forecast fluctuations and internal market liquidity adjustments. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 26°C option plummeted from 21.5c to 6c, as weather models converged closer to the date, ruling out the likelihood of unusually high temperatures.

The title specifically mentions 'Seoul', but the resolution rules explicitly state that data from the Incheon International Airport station (RKSI) will be used. Incheon is a coastal city and often has a different temperature profile compared to inland Seoul. This constitutes a significant trap for traders relying solely on the title.

While weather derivatives are common in professional finance and agriculture, betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific location on a single day is a novelty, niche, and somewhat recreational topic in retail prediction markets.

April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '16°C' surged from 10.5c to 36.5c due to adjusted forecast models indicating faster cloud clearing potentially leading to higher temperatures. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '14°C' plunged from 31c to 11c as upward temperature revisions reduced the likelihood of this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '17°C or higher' plunged from 38c to 8.5c (before bouncing back to 21c), as updated meteorological forecasts adjusted expectations, placing the peak daytime temperature more firmly in the 15-16°C range and significantly reducing the likelihood of extreme high temperatures.

April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '13°C or below' continued its volatile upward trend from around 57.5c to 82.0c, while the '14°C' option plummeted from 34.5c to 11.5c. This was due to ultra-short-term weather forecasts confirming the intensity of the incoming cold air, heavily favoring a maximum temperature of 13°C or below. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of '13°C or below' surged from 21.5c to around 63.5c, while options for higher temperatures like 15°C saw steep declines (e.g., 15°C plunged from 27c to 6.3c). This was driven by updated weather forecasts indicating low-pressure systems bringing much colder conditions than previously expected.

While weather prediction is relatively common in prediction markets, forecasting the exact highest temperature for a specific city on a specific day is somewhat niche and lacks broad public interest.

Between April 9, 2026, and April 10, 2026, the price of the 24°C option fluctuated from 32c to 31c, and the 23°C option rose from 15.5c to 19.5c, due to fine-tuning of weather forecasts as the settlement date approaches, leading to a reallocation of funds among adjacent high-probability ranges. Between April 7, 2026, and April 8, 2026, the price of the 28°C option plummeted from 17.5c to 1.35c, the 22°C option dropped from 21c to 11.5c, the 21°C option fell from 17.5c to 6c, and the 20°C option declined from 16.5c to 2.8c. This was caused by the significant reduction in weather forecast model uncertainty as the date approaches, ruling out anomalous highs and lows, causing market capital to quickly concentrate in the mainstream 23°C-25°C prediction range.