Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a single day is a niche and novelty topic in prediction markets. While not extremely absurd, ordinary people typically wouldn't think about this specific question unless they are locals or weather enthusiasts.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 11°C surged from 30.5c to 68.5c, and 12°C rebounded from 9c to 33.5c, as the latest weather forecasts confirmed a cooling trend in Munich, making it highly likely for the temperature to land in the 11°C or 12°C range. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 11°C rose from 15c to 34.5c, while 13°C plummeted from 28c to 3.25c, because earlier forecasts ruled out the possibility of warmer weather scenarios.

The rules present some nuanced risks: while replies do not count towards the total, replies that appear on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Additionally, deleted posts will count if they remain available long enough (~5 minutes) to be captured. If the Polymarket tracker fails to update correctly, Truth Social itself acts as a secondary source, which creates a risk of discrepancy between the tracker's count and manual counting.

While Trump's posting habits are a common topic, creating a prediction market to bet on the exact number of posts (including reposts and quotes) within a specific week is quite novel and niche. The general public rarely considers or predicts such hyper-micro metrics.

Between April 12 and April 13, 2026, multiple options experienced drastic fluctuations. The price of 31°C plummeted from 47c to 13.5c, 32°C dropped from 48c to 26.5c, and 35°C crashed from 25.5c to 4c. This was triggered by the meteorological agency issuing a heavy rain warning for Jakarta for the upcoming days, causing market uncertainty and leading traders to rapidly reprice and exit early positions.

There is a notable divergence. Current weather forecasts explicitly predict heavy rain on April 14, highly likely capping the maximum temperature at 31°C or 32°C. However, the prediction market still prices 33°C and 34°C relatively high (24.5c and 20c, respectively), indicating that some traders are underestimating the cooling effect of the rain or reacting to delayed information.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The price of '19°C' surged from 15c to 99.85c, because as Wellington local time entered the afternoon of April 14, the maximum temperature data was virtually confirmed at 19°C, and the market priced in this certainty. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '18°C' surged from 29.5c to 62c, as approaching settlement date forecasts highly confirmed the high temp will land at 18°C. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '19°C' plunged from 36c to 15c, as weather models further ruled out the possibility of reaching 19°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '18°C' climbed from 30c to peak at 53c before settling at 46.5c, as approaching settlement date forecasts solidified the high temp near 65°F (18°C). April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '17°C' dropped from 40.5c to 16c and bounced to 20c, because slightly warmer updated weather models shifted funds toward the 18°C and 19°C options. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '19°C' fluctuated sharply between 9.5c and 28.5c, reacting to minor updates in daily weather projections. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The prices of '15°C' and '16°C' tumbled to 0.05c as the likelihood of cooler high temperatures was completely ruled out by finalized forecasts.

This is a standard single-day weather prediction market for a specific city. While the general public outside the region or weather traders wouldn't normally think about the exact high temperature in Lucknow, it is a relatively conventional and established type of question in prediction markets.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 38°C option surged from 29c to 46c (peaking at 50c), while the 40°C and 41°C options plummeted from 26.5c and 25c down to roughly 4c and 1.6c, respectively. This was driven by the nearing resolution date and clearer weather forecasts, which ruled out extreme heat scenarios (40°C and above) and stabilized the expected temperature range to 38°C-39°C.