According to the latest meteorological data, the resolution source Wunderground forecasts a high of ...

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '19°C' surged from 37.5c to 55c, while '18°C' saw extreme volatility (peaking at 57c before dropping back to 17.5c) and '20°C or higher' fluctuated between 9.5c and 21.5c. The reason is intense market speculation between 18°C and 19°C as the resolution date approaches and the likelihood of extreme high temperatures decreases. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of '20°C or higher' crashed from 64.5c to 19c, while '18°C' and '19°C' surged. The reason is that as the date approached, global weather models (GFS/ECMWF) and Wunderground's own forecast updated to show cooler temperatures (16-18°C), undermining the credibility of the earlier MetService 20°C forecast. Capital rapidly retreated from the extreme high option towards the median values. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '20°C or higher' skyrocketed from 26c to 64.5c, driven by MetService issuing a specific 20°C forecast, which the market treated as the gold standard.

There is a moderate divergence. The current market heavily favors 19°C (55c), yet the official resolution source Wunderground forecasts a high of 65°F (~18.3°C, which rounds to 18°C). This mismatch likely occurs because traders are still weighting warmer local authority forecasts rather than strictly following the resolution source's specific model.

With less than 19 hours to expiration, market pricing is heavily concentrated on 27°C and 28°C. Acco...

March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '27°C' surged from 19.5c to 34.5c, and '28°C' surged from 13.5c to 32c, while '26°C' dropped from 25.5c to 12.5c, '24°C' crashed from 17.5c to 1.1c, and '25°C' plummeted from 19.5c to 3.35c. Reason: As the resolution date approached (less than 1 day), meteorological models significantly shifted and converged on their high-temperature forecast for Buenos Aires on March 26. The possibility of cooler temperatures (24-26°C) was completely ruled out, firmly locking the consensus into the warmer 27-28°C band. This triggered a massive capital rotation into these two options, causing outlier option prices to collapse. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '28°C' surged from 13.5c to 28c, while '24°C' crashed from 17.5c to 2c, and '32°C or higher' plummeted from 25.5c to 2.9c. Reason: The market underwent a massive repricing event. Previously, there was significant mispricing on both extreme heat (32°C+) and cooler outcomes (24°C). As the event date approached (within 3 days), meteorological models (likely GFS/ECMWF) converged, eliminating both the extreme heat outlier and the cooler hypothesis. The consensus locked onto a warmer band of 27-28°C, causing these options to skyrocket while outlier options collapsed.

Based on the latest market dynamics and near-term meteorological updates, the anticipated impact of ...

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '82-83°F' surged from 13.5c to 28.5c, while '74-75°F' crashed from 27.5c to 3.3c, as updated weather models indicated a weaker cold front impact, driving forecasted temperatures significantly higher. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '71°F or below' surged from ~25c to 44c, as market sentiment shifted aggressively towards an earlier arrival of the cold front, betting on suppressed temperatures for Thursday. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '82-83°F' crashed from 49.5c (likely initial illiquidity) to 12c, as the historic heatwave (Mar 20-22) concluded and weather models confirmed a significant cooling trend for Thursday.

According to the latest AccuWeather and NWS forecasts, the highest temperature at San Francisco Inte...

March 24-25, 2026: The price of '72-73°F' surged from 12.5c to 32c, and '70-71°F' spiked to 36c before retreating. This was driven by final meteorological models (like NWS and AccuWeather) reaching a strong consensus on a 72°F peak for KSFO, triggering a sharp repricing of the target brackets. March 23-24, 2026: The price of '74°F or higher' plunged from 28.5c down to 8.5c, as updated models indicated that the marine layer and onshore winds would cap extreme heat, correcting earlier FOMO spikes. March 23, 2026: The price of '58-59°F' crashed from 16c to 3c; the earlier spike was likely low-liquidity noise subsequently corrected by the market.

With less than 1 day to expiration, market prices are highly concentrated on 17°C (40.5%) and 18°C (...

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '17°C' surged from 28.5c to 43c, and '18°C' surged from 9.5c to 29c, while '16°C' crashed from 38.5c to 13c. The reason is that as the date approached the final day, short-term weather forecast models revised the high temperature prediction upwards, indicating that the cooling effect of the rain would not be as strong as previously anticipated. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '21°C or higher' crashed from 25.5c to 3c, and '12°C' crashed from 16.5c to 3.5c, while '16°C' surged from 16.5c to 32.5c. The reason is that weather forecast models (like GFS, ECMWF) reached a strong consensus, eliminating earlier possibilities of extreme heat or cold and locking in a 'rainy and cool (15-17°C)' scenario.