Latest mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather, KVUE, and Google Weather) consistently indic...

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the '86-87°F' option surged from 23.5c to 40.5c, likely because some short-term forecast models indicated a brief warming window before the cold front arrives, leading traders to bet on a temperature spike. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the '75°F or below' option plummeted from 25.5c to around 0.3c, and '76-77°F' dropped from 16.5c to under 1c, as short-term forecasts ruled out extreme unseasonal cold, stabilizing expectations above the 80s. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the '94°F or higher' option plummeted from 25c to between 3c and 6c, as updated weather forecasts confirmed incoming rain and thunderstorms for Austin on April 2, drastically reducing the probability of extreme heat.

The implied probability for '86-87°F' and '84-85°F' combined on Polymarket exceeds 74%, yet the latest forecasts from mainstream meteorological agencies (like AccuWeather and KVUE) have revised the high temperatures down to around 80-83°F. This divergence is likely because traders are still relying on older models that predicted persistent heat, without fully pricing in the significant cooling effect of the incoming cold front and daytime precipitation.

Based on the latest prediction market prices and New Zealand MetService forecasts, the maximum tempe...

For the general public, predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city (Wellington, NZ) on a random future date is highly unusual. This is a classic long-tail/novelty topic designed specifically for prediction markets.

On April 1, 2026, the price of '20°C' fell from 32.5c to 18.5c, while '18°C' rebounded from 11.5c to 24c, as near-term weather models cooled extreme warm expectations, driving the market back towards a standard 18-19°C high. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '18°C' plummeted from 29.5c to 11.5c, as nearing the date, forecast models shifted towards higher temperatures, reducing the probability of 18°C. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '20°C' surged from 16c to 32.5c, driven by updated weather models showing that the strength of northerly winds could push temperatures higher than initially expected. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '19°C' surged from 17.5c to a peak of 41.5c, driven by weather models confirming the passage of warm northerly winds, which increased the probability of higher-than-expected temperatures. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, '20°C' and '17°C' experienced heavy volatility (swings over 13c) as weather forecasts vacillated between cloud cover timing and wind strength, causing traders to flip between extreme high and conservative estimates. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, '21°C or higher' rose from 13.5c to 23c due to early extreme warm-front predictions, though it retraced later.

According to the latest forecasts, the high temperature at Incheon Airport on April 3 is expected to...

The title mentions 'Seoul,' but the rules strictly specify the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI)' as the data source. Temperatures may vary slightly between the two locations. Users must also rely on Wunderground's rounded whole degree Celsius data, which could mislead those who don't read the rules carefully.

March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the '19°C or higher' option plummeted from 30.5c to 7c before rebounding slightly, as short-term forecasts confirmed thicker cloud cover and showers would suppress the high temperature. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the '16°C' option surged from 12.5c to 24.5c, as meteorological models converged on the coastal Incheon airport high settling near its historical average. March 29, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of the 11°C, 10°C, and lower temperature options plummeted from 26c to under 1c, as updated forecasts ruled out the probability of extreme low temperatures for the day.

There is a noticeable divergence in the market. Some traders are misled by the word 'Seoul' in the title, looking at central Seoul's warmer forecasts (19-21°C) and betting on higher temperature brackets. However, the resolution criteria strictly specify the coastal Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI), which is typically a few degrees cooler during the day due to marine influence (forecasted around 16°C). This geographical confusion causes higher temperature options to be overvalued [14, 27].

As April 2 approaches, weather forecasting models have become increasingly stable, indicating that t...

While weather prediction markets are somewhat common on certain platforms, predicting the specific highest temperature on a given day in a specific city (Lucknow) remains a relatively niche and specialized topic for the general public.

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '38°C' rose steadily from 37c to 50.5c, as weather forecasts approaching the date became clearer, making 38°C the most likely highest temperature and rapidly strengthening market consensus. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '38°C' spiked from 25c to 46.5c before settling around 36c, as short-term weather models upgraded the expected maximum temperature to this range, after which market sentiment rationalized. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '35°C or below' spiked from 25.5c to 40c before falling back to 21.5c, due to market overreaction to volatile early weather models, which then stabilized as consensus forecasts converged around 37°C. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '37°C' steadily climbed from 17.5c to over 30c, as multiple authoritative weather forecasts increasingly pinned the expected high for April 2 between 37°C and 38°C.

According to the latest forecasts, the high temperature for New York's LaGuardia Airport on April 3,...

March 31 - April 1, 2026: The price of '59°F or below' strongly rebounded from 5c to 21.5c, as updated weather models closer to settlement hinted that Friday's highs might not break 60°F due to rain and cloud cover. March 30 - March 31, 2026: The price of '59°F or below' plunged from 33.5c (and an intraday high of 53.5c) to under 14c, while '60-61°F' and '62-63°F' rose. This was caused by interim forecasts locking the expected high just above 60°F, eliminating extreme cold expectations at that time. March 29 - March 30, 2026: Extreme high-temperature options like '78°F or higher' plummeted, as earlier forecast models showing anomalous warming scenarios were invalidated, prompting a swift market correction.