Moderate risk. Resolution relies on a snapshot of the leaderboard at a specific date and time (12:00 PM ET). Furthermore, it explicitly specifies 'Style Control Off' and has strict tie-breaker rules (including unrounded granular values and alphabetical order) which require careful monitoring. If the site is down, resolution depends on the first snapshot upon recovery, adding timing uncertainty.

May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026: The price of 'claude-opus-4-6-thinking' surged from 46c to 92.5c, while 'claude-opus-4-6' plummeted from 41c to 3.3c, and 'Other' dropped from 38.5c to 2.65c. This was driven by the model likely establishing an overwhelming lead on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, securing its expected victory.

Between May 9 and May 10, 2026, the 'yes' price for 90-91°F surged from 22c to 44.5c, while the price for 88-89°F also rose and stabilized during the same period. This is primarily due to weather forecast models converging on a higher temperature range around 90°F. Between May 9 and May 10, 2026, prices for 84-85°F and 86-87°F dropped significantly, with 84-85°F plummeting from 13c to 1.1c and 86-87°F falling from 13.5c to 6c. This is because the possibility of lower temperatures was ruled out as the forecast date approached.

Predicting the highest daily temperature in a specific city on a future date is a relatively niche and random question. Unless planning a trip, average people typically wouldn't care, though weather markets are a standard, albeit niche, category in prediction markets.

Between May 9 and May 10, 2026, the price of the 27°C option plunged from 24.5c to 4.5c, and the 31°C or higher option dropped from 23.5c to 6.5c. Options for 28°C and 30°C also experienced fluctuations of over 10c. This was driven by the nearing resolution date; as short-term weather forecasts became more precise, the market significantly discounted the likelihood of marginal temperatures, consolidating positions into the core 28°C and 29°C range.

Predicting the exact highest temperature in a specific city on a given day belongs to typical weather prediction markets. While it has an audience, it is somewhat niche for the general public, as ordinary people rarely ponder such specific figures.

Between May 9 and May 10, 2026, the price of the 15°C option surged from 22c to a peak of 40c (currently 37.5c), and 16°C spiked from 9c to 35c before settling at 21.5c. Concurrently, options for 11°C and 12°C plummeted from around 15c down to roughly 1c. This widespread repricing was driven by updated weather models showing a delayed or weakened cold front, which shifted the expected maximum temperature upward and virtually eliminated the cooler tail outcomes.

Mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Google Weather) explicitly predict a high of 14°C, yet the prediction market currently prices 15°C as the favorite (37.5% vs 31.5%). This divergence likely occurs because market participants are utilizing higher-frequency, specialized aviation weather data (METAR/TAF) or the latest ensemble models from the ECMWF, which can capture localized warming trends faster than consumer-facing forecast applications.

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of the '33°C or higher' option plummeted from 43.5c to 8.5c, while the '30°C' option surged from 11c to 29c. This was due to updated weather forecasts downgrading the extreme high-temperature expectations for May 11. May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the '31°C' option fluctuated from 22.5c up to 35c and back down to 26.5c, reflecting the market's continuous recalibration of the specific high-temperature prediction as the resolution date approaches.