Weather prediction markets are somewhat niche. While predicting the exact daily high in a specific city isn't a mainstream focus for most people, it is grounded in meteorology and not an extremely absurd or novelty question.

May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026: The price of the 12°C option surged from 32.5c to 53.5c, while the 13°C option dropped from 49c to 32c. The 14°C option also experienced sharp volatility between 8.5c and 26.8c. This is because as May 5 approached and arrived, weather forecasts converged and real-time temperature data prompted rapid adjustments in market expectations regarding the exact high (12°C vs. 13°C).

May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the Yes price for '78°F or higher' climbed steadily from 87.5¢ to 99.3¢, as weather forecasts increasingly confirmed that the maximum temperature in Houston would comfortably exceed 78°F on the target date.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city on a given date is a niche but established market type. Ordinary people rarely predict exact local temperature values, giving it a moderate level of novelty.

May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the '16°C' option surged from 33.5c to 83.5c because, as the resolution date approached, weather forecasts confirmed a rainy and cooler trend, locking the expected high temperature near 16°C. May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the '17°C' option plummeted from 35c to 11c, and the '18°C or higher' option crashed from 21c to 2.5c, as actual temperature forecasts materialized significantly lower than earlier models, diminishing the likelihood of warmer outcomes.