Between April 9 and April 10, 2026, the '33°C' option surged from 24.5c to 46c before settling at 33.5c, while '34°C or higher' spiked from 9.5c to 31c. Conversely, '31°C' dropped from 28c to 6.5c before a slight rebound. This volatility was driven by intense speculation as conflicting meteorological models (e.g., AccuWeather vs. BMKG) differed on the timing of afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover. Between April 7 and April 8, 2026, the '34°C or higher' option experienced heavy volatility, dropping to 10c before rebounding to 28.5c. The '32°C' option also dropped from 29.5c to 16c before bouncing back, while the '28°C' option plummeted from 17.5c to 2.9c. This reflects intense market speculation and the exit of capital from low-probability cooler scenarios as updated weather models were released closer to the resolution date.

There is a notable divergence. Polymarket traders currently assign a high probability (over 58% combined) to '33°C' and '34°C or higher'. However, mainstream weather forecasts (such as AccuWeather and Wunderground) predict a high likelihood of thunderstorms and cloud cover for April 11, which typically caps the maximum temperature around 31°C or 32°C (88°F-91°F). The market may be overestimating the chances of extreme heat driven by clear skies and urban heat island effects.