Weather predictions are a standard subcategory in prediction markets, but betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a particular day is quite niche compared to major political or economic events.

Predicting the exact highest temperature in a specific city on a single day is a rather niche topic. While weather markets exist, the general public almost never thinks about such a specific metric for a random day.

Between 14:58 and 17:08 on April 26, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 28c to 73c. This was driven by converging meteorological models as the resolution date approaches, which strongly point to a high of exactly 24°C (75°F). Between 22:43 on April 25 and 09:33 on April 26, 2026, the price of the 25°C option plummeted from 33.5c to 4.5c. This occurred because updated weather forecasts indicated increased chances of rain and slightly cooler temperatures, reducing the likelihood of hitting 25°C and shifting capital towards 24°C.

April 25, 2026 06:28 - 07:33, the price of the 22°C option surged from 19.5c to 29.5c. This is because, as the date approaches, weather forecast models are converging towards a high temperature of approximately 22°C, prompting traders to rapidly accumulate positions in the most likely outcome.

Between 06:28 and 07:33 on April 25, 2026, the YES price for 29°C surged from 20.5c to 30.5c. This was driven by converging weather models as the resolution date approaches, causing traders to concentrate expectations around 29°C to hedge against more extreme high-temperature forecasts.

There is a divergence. AccuWeather explicitly forecasts a high of 34°C (93°F), whereas the resolution source Wunderground forecasts 28°C. The market pricing (concentrated around 29-31°C) does not fully align with any single source, reflecting a compromise between extreme heat and more conservative models.