Resolution relies on a specific third-party tracker rather than just visible tweets. The rules contain edge cases for replies (main feed replies count) and deleted tweets (only count if captured within ~5 mins), creating a distinct risk of discrepancy between automated tracker data and manual user counting.

Predicting the exact number of posts a public figure makes within a specific 48-hour window is highly niche and novelty-driven. It is a classic entertainment-focused market typical of prediction platforms, and not something the general public actively ponders.

April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of the '40-64' option climbed from 34.5c to a peak of 56.5c, while the '65-89' option dropped from 43.5c to 26.5c. This occurred because, as the tracking period progressed (about 20 hours in), traders adjusted their expectations downward based on Musk's real-time activity, making the 40-64 range the clear favorite. April 18, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the '40-64' option climbed from 21.5c to a peak of 43.5c, while the '65-89' option dropped from 46.5c to 36.5c. This occurred because, as the tracking period approached and began, traders adjusted their expectations downward based on Musk's real-time activity, bringing the 40-64 range into a virtual tie with the 65-89 range. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, no option experienced a significant price movement of more than 10 cents, indicating stable market sentiment.

This is a highly specific novelty market betting on the exact tweet count of the official White House account over a single week. Outside of niche prediction market traders, the general public rarely considers or tracks this trivial metric.

April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 68.5c to 99.2c, while the 200+ option plummeted from 27.4c to 0.9c. With less than 4 hours left until resolution, the posting rate completely confirmed a failure to breach the 200 mark, giving the market extreme confidence in the 180-199 bracket. April 19, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 55.5c to 95c, while the 200+ option plummeted from 42.75c to 18.6c. With less than 12 hours left until resolution, the posting rate completely confirmed a failure to breach the 200 mark, giving the market absolute confidence in the 180-199 bracket. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 55.5c to 91c (currently 81.5c), while the 200+ option plummeted from 42.75c to 13.3c. With less than 24 hours left until resolution, the posting rate completely confirmed a failure to breach the 200 mark, giving the market absolute confidence in the 180-199 bracket. April 18, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 53.5c to 69.5c, while the 200+ option plummeted from 48.15c to 26.75c. With only one day left until resolution, the posting rate confirms it will be difficult to break the 200 threshold, solidifying the market's confidence in the 180-199 bracket. April 16, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 16.5c to 74.5c, while the 200+ option retreated from 75.5c to 37.75c, as a substantive slowdown in posting speed significantly increased the likelihood of landing in the 180-199 bracket, making it the most probable outcome over the 200+ bracket. April 14, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of the 200+ option surged from 1.55c to 75.5c, due to exceptionally high posting frequency during the first few days, which projected a final count easily exceeding 200. April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 12c to 29c before retracing to 24c, while the 140-159 option plummeted from 46c to around 1c, driven by much higher-than-expected frequency in the first 24 hours. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price for the 120-139 option rebounded from 4.1c to 15.75c before dropping to 15.35c, as early signs of deceleration brought this lower bracket back into consideration temporarily. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, prices for multiple core range options plummeted from around 48c-50c to 15c-30c, as initial low liquidity and wide spreads were rapidly corrected by real volume.

The title asks for Seoul's highest temperature, but the rules explicitly state that resolution is based on the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI)'. Temperatures at Incheon Airport (coastal) often differ from central Seoul, creating a trap for traders relying on generic Seoul forecasts. Additionally, temperatures are evaluated in whole degrees Celsius without accounting for later revisions.

From 2026-04-21 05:23 to 2026-04-21 10:48, the price of the 14°C option surged from 81.65c to 99.85c, as local time in Korea entered the evening of April 21, and the day's maximum temperature was effectively locked in at 14°C. From 2026-04-21 03:13 to 2026-04-21 10:48, the price of the 15°C option plummeted from 33.5c to 0.05c, because as the day progressed, the temperature failed to reach 15°C, ruling out this option based on actual data. From 2026-04-20 15:18 to 2026-04-21 03:13, the price of the 14°C option surged from 7.5c to 37c, as the settlement time approached and actual temperature data became clearer, significantly increasing the probability of the highest temperature being 14°C. From 2026-04-20 19:38 to 2026-04-21 03:13, the price of the 18°C or higher option plummeted from 26.5c to 2.7c, and the 17°C option dropped from 17c to 4.5c, because as the forecast day arrived, the possibility of high temperatures of 17°C and above was largely ruled out by actual observation data. From 2026-04-19 11:08 to 2026-04-20 08:48, the price of the 18°C or higher option plummeted further from 22.5c to 12c, as weather forecasting models confirmed that the maximum temperature would fall into a lower range (around 15°C) as the target date approached. From 2026-04-19 04:38 to 2026-04-19 07:53, the price of the 18°C or higher option dropped from 32c to 27.5c, and the 16°C option rose from 17c to 27c. This was due to updated short-term weather forecasts ruling out the possibility of anomalous high temperatures, narrowing the expected range to around 15-16°C.

Moderate novelty. While weather forecasts are extremely common in daily life, betting on the exact high-temperature range (within a few degrees) for a specific city on a single day is primarily active only in niche prediction markets. It is not a mainstream trading topic for the general public or traditional investors.

April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026: The price of the 58-59°F option rose from 27.5c to 49.5c, while the '55°F or below' option plummeted from 21c to 4.2c, and the 56-57°F option dropped from its peak of 39.5c to 20c. This shift occurred because updated weather forecasts fine-tuned the expected daily high, locking in 58-59°F as the most likely maximum and ruling out extremely low temperatures. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026: The price of the 56-57°F option surged from 10.5c to 39.5c, while the 62-63°F option plummeted from 23c to under 4c. This shift occurred because weather models updated their forecasts with higher probabilities of rain and cooler air mass for April 21, significantly lowering expected maximum temperatures.