April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 58-59°F option surged from 10.5c to 47.5c, while the 62°F or higher option plummeted from 47.5c to 7.5c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approached, updated weather models and forecasts revised the expected high temperature in Chicago down from 62°F+ to the 59-61°F range.

Betting on the specific daily high temperature of a city is a niche but standard prediction market type. While the general public doesn't typically gamble on such routine daily events, it is entirely based on objective, measurable meteorological data.

While forecasting a specific city's daily high temperature exists in traditional weather derivatives, it is a relatively niche and novel topic for general prediction markets, although the answer can be estimated via weather forecasts.

Between April 23 and April 24, 2026, the price of the 50-51°F option surged from 29.5c to 44c, while 52-53°F fell from 37.5c to 25.5c, and 54-55°F plummeted from 27.5c to 7c. This occurred because, as the date approaches, weather forecasting models have stabilized, confirming rain and cooler conditions for April 25 with a projected high near 51°F, sharply reducing the odds for higher temperature ranges.