Predicting the daily maximum temperature of a specific city is somewhat common in prediction markets, but outside of this context, ordinary people rarely guess or bet on exact daily temperatures, giving it a moderate novelty factor.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of 32°C surged from 31.5c to 75c, while 33°C and 34°C plummeted from 38.5c and 24.5c down to 12c and 7c respectively. This is due to real-time meteorological observations on the resolution day indicating that the peak temperature is highly unlikely to exceed 32°C. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 32°C climbed steadily from 7c to 32.5c and higher, as short-term weather model updates suggested lower peak temperatures than the previously expected 33°C or 34°C.

The prediction market currently leans towards warmer temperatures in the 54-59°F range (holding ~63% implied probability). However, the latest mainstream weather forecasts predominantly predict highs between 50°F and 54°F. There is a divergence between the market pricing and the meteorological forecast, possibly due to recently updated models or traders referencing weather data for areas other than the specific KORD station.

May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the '<39.0' option surged from 45c to 77c (then settling at 65.5c), while '39.0–39.4' fell from 36c to 21.5c, and '39.5-39.9' plummeted from 18.5c to 1.5c. This is because, nearing resolution, new polling data showed a further decline in approval ratings, completely extinguishing hopes of a rebound above 39.5% and pushing expectations further below 39%. May 2, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of the '<39.0' option surged from 33c to 55c, while '39.0–39.4' dropped from 40.5c to 31c, because as the resolution date approaches, more polling data solidified the reality of extremely low approval ratings, breaking previous expectations of a floor at 39%. May 2, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the '<39.0' option plummeted from 63.5c to 33c, while the '39.0–39.4' option surged from 25c to 39.5c. This is likely due to new polling data indicating that although Trump's approval is low, the momentum to break below the 39% mark is insufficient, showing signs of short-term stabilization at the bottom. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the '40.0–40.4' option crashed from 26c to 6.5c, and the '39.5–39.9' option also slid. This is because macro negative factors continue to unfold, completely extinguishing market expectations of a short-term recovery above 40%.

While daily weather forecasting is a standard category on specific prediction market platforms, predicting the high temperature for a specific city (Wellington, NZ) on a specific day is not something the general public typically thinks about, giving it a somewhat niche and novelty status.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of the 16°C option surged from 7c to 49c, while the 17°C option dropped from 68c to 44c, and the 18°C option plummeted from 28c to 2c. The reason is that real-time weather observations on May 6 showed slower temperature increases, making 16°C the more likely peak and heavily reducing the chances of 18°C. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 17°C option surged from 34.5c to 68.5c, while the 18°C option plummeted from 28c to 10c. This was driven by real-time weather conditions and updated forecasts strongly pointing to a high of exactly 17°C.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, as the day's weather becomes clearer, the prices of the 14°C and 15°C options remained at high levels (42.5c and 39c, respectively), while the 13°C option further retreated to 16c. This is due to updated forecasts narrowing the likely peak temperature range. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 14°C option surged from 7c to a peak of 41.5c, and the 15°C option spiked from 5.5c to 39.5c, while the prices of 12°C and 13°C plummeted. The reason is that as the date approaches, updated weather forecasts revised the expected high temperature upwards from 12-13°C to 14-15°C.