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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
17°C
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
18°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
12°C or below
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
22°C or higher
YesNo
AI Insights:
7 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
It is March 18, with only 1 day until resolution. Short-range meteorological models (HRRR/Met Office) have converged for tomorrow's weather at London EGLC. The consensus forecast places the high between 15.5°C and 16.5°C with sunny intervals, supporting the upper end of the range. Since Wunderground rounds to whole degrees, the wide band of 15.5°C-16.4°C resolves to 16°C, making it the statistically dominant favorite (assigned 50c Fair Value). The risk for 17°C (25c) remains significant if solar heating pushes the max to 16.5°C, causing a round-up. Conversely, 15°C (18c) is fading unless unexpected cloud cover stifles heating. The market is currently overpricing the tails (18°C at 8.3c and 14°C at 3.65c) given the settled near-term forecast.
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Movers
March 17 - March 18, 2026, the price of 16°C rebounded from ~31c to 40.5c, while 17°C recovered from an oversold 12.5c to 22.5c. This was driven by the approach of the event date, as models ruled out cooler risks (14°C collapsed), confirming a mild and sunny pattern that consolidated capital into 16°C and necessitated an upward hedge into 17°C.
March 16 - March 17, 2026, 18°C and 19°C crashed (18°C fell from ~23c to ~5c) as meteorological models underwent a major correction, cancelling the previously expected 'spring heatwave' and lowering the baseline to around 16°C.
