All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
13°C
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
18°C or higher
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
8°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 12:41 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As the date approaches (T-3), weather model accuracy has improved significantly, triggering a drastic market correction. The primary forecast range has shifted from the previous 11-12°C to 13-15°C. Currently, 14°C is the frontrunner (29c), aligning with the latest warmer weather trends. Given the total 'Yes' price sum is ~115c, the market holds a slight premium. The fair value model concentrates probability on 14°C (the mode) and its adjacent options (13°C and 15°C), while heavily slashing the weights of the previously popular but now likely too cool 11°C and 12°C options.
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Exotics
This is a typical weather derivative style question. While weather is a natural phenomenon and not 'absurd', betting on the specific max temperature of a single city on a single day is relatively niche compared to mainstream elections or sports.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of the 11°C option crashed from 26.5c to 4.5c, and the 12°C option plummeted from 27c to 8c. Conversely, the 14°C option surged from 19c to 29c. Reason: With only 3 days remaining until March 20, weather forecast models (like GFS/ECMWF) have converged on a warmer outlook significantly above the historical average. This triggered a massive sell-off in the previously overvalued cooler options (11-12°C) and a capital flight towards the warmer range (13-15°C).
