All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
16°C
YesNo
17°C or higher
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
7°C or below
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
12 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the latest meteorological models (GFS/ECMWF) and mainstream forecast sources (Google Weather, BBC), the highest temperature in London on March 22 is clustered between 13°C and 15°C, with 14°C being the most probable outcome. While some minority models (e.g., Metcheck) suggest a cold front could lower temperatures (to ~11°C) or result in a midnight high, the consensus supports mild spring weather. The market is currently severely overpriced (Sum > 160%); thus, normalized fair values show that the mainstream options (13-15°C) have a much higher true probability than implied, while extreme tail options (<10°C or >17°C) should be valued very low.
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Divergence
There is a significant divergence in pricing efficiency. While the market correctly identifies 14°C as the favorite, it drastically overprices tail risks (e.g., 17°C+ or below 10°C), assigning them a combined probability of ~30%, whereas mainstream weather forecasts suggest these are highly unlikely (<5%). Furthermore, the aggregate market price (>160%) indicates massive systemic overvaluation, diverging sharply from a rational probability distribution (which should sum to 100%).
