As the event date (March 23) approaches, forecast uncertainty has significantly decreased. The marke...

Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 22, 2026, '30°C or higher' crashed from 36c to 5c, and '29°C' fell from 29.5c to 10c. The reason is that as the resolution date neared, mainstream weather models did not validate the extreme heat scenario, causing the speculative bubble based on AccuWeather data to burst. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 22, 2026, '27°C' surged from ~24c to a peak of 41.5c (settling at 37c), as capital fled the collapsing high-heat options and flowed back into the reasonable range aligned with mainstream forecasts (IBM/Wunderground). Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, '25°C' crashed from 26c to 1.25c, indicating the market's complete abandonment of lower-median temperature possibilities early on.

Current time is Sunday 22:11 UTC (18:11 ET), meaning US equity index futures (ES) have just opened. ...

Based on the ongoing context of the '2026 Iran War' (Operation Epic Fury), the White House remains o...

This is a relatively exotic, niche market. While political reporters track the White House schedule, the general public rarely thinks about or predicts specific 'full lid' times. It fits the category of granular political trivia.

On March 21, 2026, the price for March 23 (Monday) spiked from 28.5c to 55c within hours before settling back to 45c. This extreme volatility likely stems from conflicting insider rumors regarding Monday's wartime briefing schedule or a single whale sweeping the book in a low-liquidity environment. On the same day, March 27 (Friday) crashed from 43.5c to 24c before quickly rebounding to 45c, likely reflecting momentary panic or misjudgment regarding rumors of the President traveling to Mar-a-Lago (which implies an early or travel lid).

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market pricing (~44c-45c) implies a near coin-flip probability of the day ending before 6:30 PM, which sharply contradicts the norm for a 'Wartime President'. Mainstream expectation dictates long White House operating hours. The market pricing likely reflects default algorithm settings (near 50/50) rather than the specific macro war context, leading to a significant overvaluation of the 'Yes' option.

Latest forecasts (Google, AccuWeather, 9News, NWS) consistently pinpoint the high temperature for De...

March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of 82-83°F surged from 10c to 36c (settling at 28.5c) as weather forecast consensus solidified around the 82-83°F range closer to the date. March 21, 2026, the price of 80-81°F crashed from 41.5c to 15c as the market realized previous forecasts were too cool and capital rotated into warmer options. March 21, 2026, the price of 78-79°F saw high volatility, initially spiking from 11c to 28.5c before fading as updated forecasts pointed to higher temperatures.

The latest forecast from Environment Canada (updated evening of Mar 21) explicitly predicts a high o...

Throughout March 22, 2026, [6°C or higher] experienced significant over-speculation and subsequent pullback. The price peaked at 44.5c at 10:10 AM before retracing to 39c in the evening. This indicates that speculative capital attempted to pump this option despite a lack of supporting meteorological data, followed by profit-taking as fundamentals (forecasts of 3-5°C) held firm. From the early morning to late morning of March 21, 2026, [6°C or higher] climbed from 25.5c to over 36c, showing a market sentiment decoupling from official forecasts which remained anchored in the 3°C-5°C range.

Significant divergence exists. Polymarket prices imply a ~40% probability for '6°C or higher', making it the favorite. Conversely, authoritative sources (Environment Canada) forecast a high of only 3°C, and commercial apps (The Weather Network) forecast 5°C. No major model supports temperatures exceeding 6°C, suggesting the market is pricing the event 2-3°C warmer than scientific consensus.