Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a somewhat niche topic. While not as mainstream as political or macroeconomic events, it is a relatively common daily random event in prediction markets, possessing moderate novelty.

Between 06:33 and 07:38 on April 25, 2026, the price of the 35°C option surged from 21c to 38c, and the 34°C option surged from 15.5c to 34c. This was driven by increasing consensus among weather models forecasting high temperatures of 34-35°C for April 27 as the date approaches, leading capital to concentrate on these most likely outcomes.

While weather derivatives exist in professional finance, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is somewhat niche and a novelty for general prediction market participants. It is not something the general public actively contemplates.

April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of 13°C surged from 17c to 99c, while 12°C and lower options plummeted. This is because real-time weather data for April 26 indicated the daily minimum temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport remained around 13°C, effectively locking in the result.

April 24, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of the 12°C option surged from 17.5c to 99.1c, while the 11°C option plummeted from 17.5c to 0.5c. This occurred because, as the resolution date arrived, actual observed temperature data confirmed the lowest temperature to be 12°C.