Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26?
Weather|$8,387 Vol|
time3 days 10 hrs

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.22 11:54
Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
70-71°F(No)
+9¢
74-75°F(Yes)
+7.6¢
82-83°F(No)

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26? AI analysis: • +9.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Despite a historic heatwave in SoCal breaking inland records, KLAX remains moderated by the ocean. F...
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Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto|$1.4m Vol|
time284 days 3 hrs

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Top Undervalued
+36.5¢
$500M(Yes)
Arbitrage Opportunity
1¢
Arbitrage
1.7%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy $2B Yes (1.95c) + Buy $3B No (96.65c). Total Cost 98.6c. Plan Description: This is a textbook risk-free arbitrage opportunity. Logically, FDV > $3B strictly implies FDV > $2B....
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Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on March 2026 market data, the Perp DEX sector leader, Hyperliquid, has reached an FDV of $30B...
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Divergence
There is an extreme cognitive divergence. Mainstream data (CoinGecko/DefiLlama) shows Extended as a top-tier Perp DEX second only to Hyperliquid, boasting hundreds of millions in OI and billions in weekly volume. Benchmarking against Hyperliquid's current ~$30B+ FDV, Extended's fair valuation should theoretically exceed $1B. However, the prediction market prices the $1B option at only 6c (6% probability), implying the market is pricing in a catastrophic event (no token launch, regulatory crackdown, or project failure), which completely contradicts the thriving on-chain metrics.
AI Analysis
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Economy|$1.3m Vol|
time282 days 22 hrs

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
Apple(Yes)
+6¢
NVIDIA(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
While NVIDIA ($4.7T) maintains a substantial market cap lead of ~$700B-$900B, a price of 66c implies...
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Hedging
NVDA
This market is essentially a bet on the relative performance of tech giants. If NVDA takes the top spot, it likely signifies a sustained AI boom, acting as a significant confirmation for NVDA's stock price (Score 3). For other contenders like MSFT and AAPL, represents a long-term ranking battle. As this reflects long-term consensus rather than a single shock event, the impact on the Nasdaq index is smoother, though the outcome reflects broader sector rotation trends.
Divergence
There is a significant 'retail bias' divergence. While NVIDIA's dominance is correctly reflected in the pricing, the valuation of Microsoft (2.2c) versus Tesla (2.55c) is completely disconnected from fundamentals. In reality, Microsoft's market cap (~$3.0T) is roughly double that of Tesla (~$1.5T), and its mathematical probability of reclaiming the top spot is far higher. Yet, the prediction market assigns a higher price to Tesla, reflecting an irrational premium on Elon Musk's persona rather than an objective forecast of market capitalization.
AI Analysis
Denmark Parliamentary Election Winner
Politics|$722.7k Vol|
time22 hrs 55 mins

Denmark Parliamentary Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
Social Democrats(No)
+0.4¢
Green Left(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 24 hours until election day, the market has effectively locked in the outcome. The So...
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AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 23?
Weather|$232.4k Vol|
time10 hrs 55 mins

Highest temperature in Seoul on March 23?

Top Undervalued
+65.3¢
16°C or higher(No)
+36.6¢
14°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
This presents a classic 'geographic confusion' arbitrage opportunity. The market is heavily pricing ...
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Movers
March 22, 2026, the price of '16°C or higher' crashed from an intraday high of 70.4c to 48.6c, as traders began to price in the temperature differential between downtown Seoul and Incheon Airport closer to settlement, causing the earlier high-temp FOMO to collapse. March 21-22, 2026, the price of '13°C' fell from ~30c to 6c, as capital chased high-temp options driven by misleading city forecasts, leaving this meteorologically accurate option severely oversold.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Market prices imply a ~50% probability of temperatures exceeding 16°C at Incheon Airport, whereas mainstream meteorological models (Wunderground/TWC) forecast only 13°C-14°C for the location. The market is pricing in the 'heat island' weather of downtown Seoul rather than the coastal weather of the resolution source.
AI Analysis
"Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office
Culture|$96.8k Vol|
time10 hrs 55 mins

"Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office

Top Undervalued
+32¢
18-19.5m(Yes)
+30.1¢
16.5-18m(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest Sunday (March 22) data from sources like The Numbers and BoxOfficeMojo, the ...
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Movers
March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, '16.5-18m' surged from ~10c to ~80c, while '19.5-21m' crashed from ~38c to <1c. This was driven by the release of Sunday studio estimates ($18.0M), which decimated the bullish '$20M+' rumors from Saturday, forcing capital to flee back to the conservative range and bet on actuals dipping slightly below the $18M estimate. March 21, 2026, '16.5-18m' previously spiked to ~56c, reflecting initial panic over competition, before briefly retracting due to the false bullish Saturday reports.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream box office trackers (e.g., The Numbers) report a weekend estimate of $18.0M, which would result in a win for '18-19.5m' under the specific market rules. However, the prediction market is pricing '16.5-18m' at 80%, indicating a strong trader conviction that the finalized 'Actuals' will come in lower than the Sunday studio estimate (under-performance), thereby flipping the resolution bucket.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
70-71°F
YesNo
11.5¢
88.5¢
98¢
+9.5¢
74-75°F
YesNo
19¢
81¢
28¢
72¢
+9¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Divergence
Market bets on extremes (82°F+ or <67°F), while forecasts clearly point to the median (~75°F), showing a neglect of coastal microclimate differences.

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