Between May 21 and May 22, 2026, the price of 82-83°F surged from 17.5c to 35c as the weather forecast data became clearer closer to the date, locking in this range. The price of 84-85°F rose from 16.5c to 24.5c, while 78-79°F dropped from 15.5c to 5.5c as the possibility of lower temperatures was ruled out.

May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The price of the '79°F or below' option plummeted from 37.5c to 11.5c, while '82-83°F' surged from 19c to 37c. This shift occurred because updated meteorological data indicated less rainfall than initially expected over the weekend, reducing the temperature-suppressing effect of the storms and shifting market expectations toward higher temperature ranges.

The market is currently pricing the highest probabilities in the 80-83°F range (over 63% implied probability), seemingly relying heavily on automated weather models like Google Weather which predicts a high of 81°F. However, Space City Weather, a highly accurate local meteorological source, notes that Saturday looks exceptionally calm and drier than expected, allowing sunshine to push temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s. Therefore, the market may be significantly underpricing the 84-85°F and 86-87°F options [2, 9].

May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026, the price of the 25°C option plummeted from 26c to 12.5c, and the 24°C option dropped from 14.5c to 4.5c. This occurred because, as the expiration date approached, updated meteorological models shifted the likely maximum temperature center towards 26°C and 27°C, heavily squeezing the probabilities of lower temperature options. May 19, 2026 - May 21, 2026, as the expiration date approached and weather forecast models remained stable, no option experienced a price movement exceeding 10 cents, indicating a steady market consensus.

The title mentions 'Denver', but the resolution rules strictly specify the 'Buckley Space Force Base Station (KBKF)' in neighboring Aurora. High temperatures can vary by a few degrees between different weather stations (e.g., the standard Denver International Airport KDEN vs. the base). Traders relying on general Denver weather forecasts risk falling into a data source mismatch trap.

Between 06:08 and 10:03 on May 22, 2026, the price of the 74-75°F option surged from 11.5c to 24.5c. This was due to updated meteorological models predicting a slightly warmer peak temperature as the date drew nearer, increasing the likelihood of hitting this range. Between 23:13 on May 21 and 06:08 on May 22, 2026, the 70-71°F option experienced a drop from 26.5c to 17.5c (with prior volatility), driven by the upward shift in expected temperatures in short-term forecasts, which reduced the probability of the lower ranges.