All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
30°C or below
YesNo
31°C
YesNo
32°C
YesNo
33°C
YesNo
38°C
YesNo
36°C
YesNo
35°C
YesNo
34°C
YesNo
40°C or higher
YesNo
39°C
YesNo
37°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
11 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Forecasts from Wunderground (resolution source) and Weather.com indicate rain and cloud cover for Lucknow on March 20-21, leading to a cooling trend for March 22 with expected highs between 29°C and 33°C. TimeandDate predicts 33°C, while IBM/Google data suggests highs as low as 29°C. Consequently, fair value is heavily concentrated in the '30°C or below' and '31°C-33°C' brackets. The market's pricing of '40°C or higher' at 23.5% is grossly inefficient, ignoring the specific short-term meteorological forecast.
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Divergence
Significant divergence. Market prices imply a 23.5% probability of temperatures exceeding 40°C on March 22, whereas mainstream weather forecasts (including Wunderground) consistently predict highs between 29°C and 33°C, following a cooling rain event. The market appears to be trading on historical extremes rather than the actual meteorological forecast.
