Current mainstream weather forecasts project a high of around 62°F on May 14 (affected by rain), yet the prediction market assigns high odds to 64-65°F and 66-67°F (combining for over 50%). This suggests the market might be referencing older forecast models, or anticipating that the LaGuardia weather station will record an extreme spike higher than standard forecasts due to the urban heat island effect or brief sun exposure. Overall, there is a moderate divergence between the market-implied probabilities and the raw median weather forecasts.

There is a slight divergence. While the market prices '76-77°F' as the favorite (26c), the specific resolution source (Wunderground) currently forecasts a high of exactly 74°F, which falls in the '74-75°F' bracket. The market may be factoring in other slightly warmer local forecasts or expecting an upward revision as the date approaches.