April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '19°C' surged from 35.5c to 57c, while '18°C' plummeted from 27.5c to 4.65c. This occurred because, as the afternoon of April 13 approached in Beijing Time, real-time temperature observations increasingly locked the daily high around 19°C. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of '19°C' surged from 17.5c to 35.5c, and '18°C' rose from 15c to 27.5c, while '23°C or higher' plummeted from 24c to 1.45c. This is because approaching weather forecasts confirmed cooler temperatures (around 18-19°C with chances of rain), eliminating the possibility of extreme heat. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '23°C or higher' plummeted from 24c to 6.5c. This is because, as the date approached, weather forecasts clearly indicated temperatures around 19°C, drastically reducing the likelihood of extreme heat.

While daily weather is widely monitored, betting on the exact integer high temperature for a specific city on a specific date falls outside standard daily concerns. It carries some novelty but remains a standard, albeit niche, category within prediction markets.

There is a significant divergence. The prediction market currently prices 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C significantly higher (highest Yes prices), whereas mainstream weather forecasts explicitly point to a maximum temperature around 14°C. The current market price distribution is irrational.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city that is not a major global economic hub is a typical niche weather market. Unless one is a local resident or a weather/energy derivative trader, the general public wouldn't naturally ponder this question, giving it a moderate novelty factor.

On April 12, 2026, several options including '8°C', '9°C', '10°C', and '13°C' experienced price crashes of over 10c (e.g., 8°C plummeted from 25c to 2c, 10°C from 25c to 12.5c, and 12°C from 33.5c to 20.5c). This correction occurred because as the resolution date approaches, weather forecasts have converged on warmer expected temperatures (12°C-15°C), prompting the market to heavily discount the probability of cooler outcomes.

The title mentions 'Denver', but the rules strictly specify using data from the Buckley Space Force Base Station (located in Aurora). Users relying on generic Denver weather forecasts (which typically use Denver International Airport data) may face discrepancies due to microclimates and station location differences if they ignore the specific Wunderground link.

Between April 12, 2026 05:18 and April 12, 2026 06:23, the price of the 60-61°F option surged from 13c to 24.5c, while the 64-65°F option plunged from 26.5c to 16c, and the 56-57°F option dropped from 17.5c to 4c. This occurred because meteorological platforms like Wunderground updated their forecasts for April 14, revising the expected high temperature to around 60°F, prompting traders to shift their positions toward the 60-63°F range.