All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
18°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
23°C or higher
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
22°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
13°C or below
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the latest weather forecasts (Wunderground/The Weather Channel), the high temperature for Madrid on March 19 is explicitly projected to be 65°F (~18.3°C). Following a cold front, temperatures are trending down from the 22°C high observed on March 17. The forecast consensus is tightly clustered around 18°C (65°F), with a slight possibility of fluctuation into 19°C (if temps hit 66-67°F). While the market correctly identifies 18°C and 19°C as favorites, it continues to overprice 20°C and 21°C (combined ~26% implied probability), which contradicts the clear cooling trend. The fair value model strongly favors 18°C as the primary outcome, with 19°C as the main hedge.
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Movers
From March 17 to March 18, 2026, the price of the 20°C option plunged from 27.5c to 16c, and the 17°C option dropped from 26.5c to 13.5c. This movement was driven by weather forecasts consolidating around a narrow 18°C-19°C range as the event date approached, causing the market to abandon the cooler (17°C) and warmer (20°C) outliers and concentrate liquidity on the consensus forecast.
Divergence
Significant tail risk divergence exists. While mainstream weather forecasts consistently project temperatures cooling to 18°C (65°F) on March 19, with a ceiling around 19°C, the prediction market still assigns a combined ~26% probability to 20°C and 21°C. This suggests a lag in market efficiency, as traders have not fully priced in the meteorological fact that Tuesday's (17th) 22°C heat was the weekly peak, followed by a confirmed cooling trend.
