Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'Highest temperature in Madrid on March 20' event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value and risks based on the latest Wunderground forecast for the LEMD station.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'Highest temperature in Madrid on March 20' event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value and risks based on the latest Wunderground forecast for the LEMD station.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the specific hourly temperature forecasts for Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport (LEMD) on March 20, 2026, across Wunderground, AEMET, and The Weather Channel to compare the peak temperature predictions and identify the consensus forecast.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the specific hourly temperature forecasts for Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport (LEMD) on March 20, 2026, across Wunderground, AEMET, and The Weather Channel to compare the peak temperature predictions and identify the consensus forecast.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low trading volume (~$70) for this event, provide a 'Stink Bid' strategy for placing low limit orders on outlier options (e.g., '12°C or below') to capture potential mispriced liquidity without crossing the spread.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low trading volume (~$70) for this event, provide a 'Stink Bid' strategy for placing low limit orders on outlier options (e.g., '12°C or below') to capture potential mispriced liquidity without crossing the spread.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$22.9k Vol|

8 hrs 20 mins

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 20? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

13°C

YesNo

21¢

79¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+18¢

17°C

YesNo

5.45¢

94.55¢

20¢

80¢

+14.6¢

0¢

14°C

YesNo

23.5¢

76.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+8.5¢

18°C

YesNo

1.8¢

98.2¢

10¢

90¢

+8.2¢

0¢

19°C

YesNo

0.3¢

99.7¢

5¢

95¢

+4.7¢

0¢

16°C

YesNo

20.5¢

79.5¢

25¢

75¢

+4.5¢

0¢

15°C

YesNo

24¢

76¢

20¢

80¢

0¢

+4¢

12°C or below

YesNo

2.75¢

97.25¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2.7¢

20°C

YesNo

0.4¢

99.6¢

1¢

99¢

+0.6¢

0¢

22°C or higher

YesNo

0.5¢

99.5¢

1¢

99¢

+0.5¢

0¢

21°C

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

AI Insights:

03.19 07:37 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

According to the latest forecasts (Weather25, Wunderground), the high temperature in Madrid on March...

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Divergence

Significant divergence exists. Firstly, the market pricing is mathematically broken (sum of probabilities > 245%). Secondly, the market assigns the highest implied probabilities to 13°C-15°C (avg ~36c), whereas mainstream forecasts (e.g., Weather25) predict a high of around 16°C (60°F), with AccuWeather suggesting even higher (19°C). The market appears to be betting on a much steeper temperature drop than forecasted.

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 20? - AI Odds Analysis

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