[Mandatory Task] Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume ($80.8), visit Polymarket to analyze the order book and compare the latest forecasts for Madrid on March 21 from Wunderground and AEMET (Spanish Met Agency) to assess if the odds for options like '15°C' to '20°C or higher' are mispriced, while noting liquidity risks.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume ($80.8), visit Polymarket to analyze the order book and compare the latest forecasts for Madrid on March 21 from Wunderground and AEMET (Spanish Met Agency) to assess if the odds for options like '15°C' to '20°C or higher' are mispriced, while noting liquidity risks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Core News Sourcing] Meteorological Model Data: Search for the latest max temperature forecasts for Madrid on March 21 from GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) to identify any significant discrepancies between these major models.

AI-powered analysis for: [Core News Sourcing] Meteorological Model Data: Search for the latest max temperature forecasts for Madrid on March 21 from GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) to identify any significant discrepancies between these major models.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Data Source Reliability Check] Wunderground Update Mechanism: Verify the update frequency and data granularity for the LEMD (Madrid-Barajas Airport) station on Wunderground to confirm if the 'daily high' is based on instantaneous readings or hourly snapshots, avoiding resolution pitfalls.

AI-powered analysis for: [Data Source Reliability Check] Wunderground Update Mechanism: Verify the update frequency and data granularity for the LEMD (Madrid-Barajas Airport) station on Wunderground to confirm if the 'daily high' is based on instantaneous readings or hourly snapshots, avoiding resolution pitfalls.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Historical Frequency Statistics] Historical Temperature Backtest: Search for the actual recorded high temperatures in Madrid on March 21 over the past 5 years (2021-2025) to calculate the historical probability of the temperature falling within the '15°C-19°C' range.

AI-powered analysis for: [Historical Frequency Statistics] Historical Temperature Backtest: Search for the actual recorded high temperatures in Madrid on March 21 over the past 5 years (2021-2025) to calculate the historical probability of the temperature falling within the '15°C-19°C' range.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Resolution Rules] Celsius Rounding Specifics: Check Wunderground's specific display rules to confirm if they round decimals (e.g., does 19.5°C display as 20°C?), which is critical for edge cases between '19°C' and '20°C or higher'.

AI-powered analysis for: [Resolution Rules] Celsius Rounding Specifics: Check Wunderground's specific display rules to confirm if they round decimals (e.g., does 19.5°C display as 20°C?), which is critical for edge cases between '19°C' and '20°C or higher'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Key Variables Confirmation] Precipitation & Cloud Cover: Search for the cloud cover and precipitation probability forecast for March 21 to analyze if rain or overcast skies could unexpectedly suppress temperatures below 15°C (triggering '14°C' or lower options).

AI-powered analysis for: [Key Variables Confirmation] Precipitation & Cloud Cover: Search for the cloud cover and precipitation probability forecast for March 21 to analyze if rain or overcast skies could unexpectedly suppress temperatures below 15°C (triggering '14°C' or lower options).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Opposing Arguments Retrieval] Heat Island vs. Airport Location: Search for discussions on temperature discrepancies between Madrid-Barajas Airport (LEMD) and Madrid city center to determine if the airport's open environment typically records lower highs than the urban area.

AI-powered analysis for: [Opposing Arguments Retrieval] Heat Island vs. Airport Location: Search for discussions on temperature discrepancies between Madrid-Barajas Airport (LEMD) and Madrid city center to determine if the airport's open environment typically records lower highs than the urban area.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment] Liquidity Analysis: Given the total volume is only 80.8, manually check the bid-ask spread to assess if the slippage cost for a $50 entry on a specific temperature option would outweigh the potential edge.

AI-powered analysis for: [Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment] Liquidity Analysis: Given the total volume is only 80.8, manually check the bid-ask spread to assess if the slippage cost for a $50 entry on a specific temperature option would outweigh the potential edge.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Weather Model Update Schedule: List the update times for major weather models (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z) over the next 48 hours, as these are the catalysts most likely to cause volatility in specific temperature odds.

AI-powered analysis for: [Potential Catalyst Prediction] Weather Model Update Schedule: List the update times for major weather models (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z) over the next 48 hours, as these are the catalysts most likely to cause volatility in specific temperature odds.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis] Cluster vs. Single Point Betting: Analyze the odds structure to determine if it's safer to bet on a temperature cluster (e.g., buying 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C) or if the market is mispricing a single extreme outcome (e.g., 20°C+) offering a high-reward play.

AI-powered analysis for: [Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis] Cluster vs. Single Point Betting: Analyze the odds structure to determine if it's safer to bet on a temperature cluster (e.g., buying 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C) or if the market is mispricing a single extreme outcome (e.g., 20°C+) offering a high-reward play.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Randomness vs. Predictability Analysis] 4-Day Forecast Variance: Search for the average standard error of '4-day high temp forecasts' (often ±2°C) to evaluate if betting on a single specific degree (e.g., exactly 17°C) actually has a lower win rate than a coin flip.

AI-powered analysis for: [Randomness vs. Predictability Analysis] 4-Day Forecast Variance: Search for the average standard error of '4-day high temp forecasts' (often ±2°C) to evaluate if betting on a single specific degree (e.g., exactly 17°C) actually has a lower win rate than a coin flip.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Time Decay (Theta) Analysis] Outlier Theta Decay: Analyze if the prices for extreme options (e.g., '10°C or below' or '20°C or higher') will decay to zero faster if forecasts remain stable in the 16-18°C range over the next 24 hours.

AI-powered analysis for: [Time Decay (Theta) Analysis] Outlier Theta Decay: Analyze if the prices for extreme options (e.g., '10°C or below' or '20°C or higher') will decay to zero faster if forecasts remain stable in the 16-18°C range over the next 24 hours.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Community Disagreement Summary] Weather Source Debate: Check Polymarket comments to see if local users are pointing out any systematic bias in Wunderground data for this specific station (e.g., consistently reading 1 degree lower than official AEMET data).

AI-powered analysis for: [Community Disagreement Summary] Weather Source Debate: Check Polymarket comments to see if local users are pointing out any systematic bias in Wunderground data for this specific station (e.g., consistently reading 1 degree lower than official AEMET data).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation] Pro Weather Accounts: Recommend monitoring AEMET (Spanish Met Agency) on Twitter or real-time data on Meteociel.fr, as these sources often reflect trend changes earlier than Wunderground's aggregated API.

AI-powered analysis for: [High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation] Pro Weather Accounts: Recommend monitoring AEMET (Spanish Met Agency) on Twitter or real-time data on Meteociel.fr, as these sources often reflect trend changes earlier than Wunderground's aggregated API.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Optimal Limit Order Placement] Low Liquidity Strategy: Given the illiquid market, formulate a 'passive maker' strategy to place limit bids at fair odds rather than using market buys, avoiding significant losses from the wide bid-ask spread.

AI-powered analysis for: [Optimal Limit Order Placement] Low Liquidity Strategy: Given the illiquid market, formulate a 'passive maker' strategy to place limit bids at fair odds rather than using market buys, avoiding significant losses from the wide bid-ask spread.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Low Liquidity 'Stink Bid' Strategy] Catching Panic Dumps: Provide guidance on placing extremely low bids (e.g., 1 cent) on deep out-of-the-money options (like 12°C or 13°C) to catch potential panic sells or fat-finger errors.

AI-powered analysis for: [Low Liquidity 'Stink Bid' Strategy] Catching Panic Dumps: Provide guidance on placing extremely low bids (e.g., 1 cent) on deep out-of-the-money options (like 12°C or 13°C) to catch potential panic sells or fat-finger errors.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Correlated Combo Bets Discovery] Constructing Temperature Ranges: Calculate how to proportionally buy the three most likely consecutive temperature options (e.g., 16°C, 17°C, 18°C) to construct a 'synthetic win' position covering the main forecast range.

AI-powered analysis for: [Correlated Combo Bets Discovery] Constructing Temperature Ranges: Calculate how to proportionally buy the three most likely consecutive temperature options (e.g., 16°C, 17°C, 18°C) to construct a 'synthetic win' position covering the main forecast range.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation] Confidence-Based Sizing: Assuming 70% confidence in a specific weather model, calculate the optimal portfolio allocation based on current odds to avoid over-betting in such an illiquid market.

AI-powered analysis for: [Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation] Confidence-Based Sizing: Assuming 70% confidence in a specific weather model, calculate the optimal portfolio allocation based on current odds to avoid over-betting in such an illiquid market.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Stop-Loss Red Line Setting] Forecast Shift Reaction: Define a specific stop-loss condition, such as 'if both major models (GFS/ECMWF) shift their forecast outside my held range by more than 2°C', dictating an immediate exit regardless of loss.

AI-powered analysis for: [Stop-Loss Red Line Setting] Forecast Shift Reaction: Define a specific stop-loss condition, such as 'if both major models (GFS/ECMWF) shift their forecast outside my held range by more than 2°C', dictating an immediate exit regardless of loss.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Net Profit Calculation] ROI vs. Capital Lockup: Calculate if the actual ROI is worthwhile after deducting Gas fees and the opportunity cost of locking capital on Polymarket for 4 days, even assuming the prediction is perfectly accurate.

AI-powered analysis for: [Net Profit Calculation] ROI vs. Capital Lockup: Calculate if the actual ROI is worthwhile after deducting Gas fees and the opportunity cost of locking capital on Polymarket for 4 days, even assuming the prediction is perfectly accurate.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$2,537 Vol|

2 days 13 hrs

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 21? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

12°C

YesNo

8.75¢

91.25¢

28¢

72¢

+19.3¢

0¢

16°C

YesNo

23.5¢

76.5¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+15.5¢

13°C

YesNo

13¢

87¢

28¢

72¢

+15¢

0¢

17°C

YesNo

13.5¢

86.5¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+10.5¢

11°C

YesNo

4.85¢

95.15¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+4.8¢

19°C

YesNo

4.4¢

95.6¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+4.4¢

20°C or higher

YesNo

3.65¢

96.35¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+3.6¢

15°C

YesNo

15¢

85¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+3¢

18°C

YesNo

2.8¢

97.2¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1.8¢

10°C or below

YesNo

1.65¢

98.35¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.6¢

14°C

YesNo

21¢

79¢

20¢

80¢

0¢

+1¢

AI Insights:

4 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The resolution source, Wunderground (owned by IBM/The Weather Company), currently forecasts 12°C to 13°C for Madrid on March 21st, with light rain or clouds. This contrasts significantly with the market's preference for 16°C (Meteored forecast) or 15°C (AccuWeather forecast). Given that the resolution source strongly correlates with its parent company's (IBM) data, and high precipitation probability typically suppresses temperatures, fair value should be heavily weighted towards 12°C-13°C, making these options currently significantly undervalued.

Exotics

This is a typical weather prediction market. While weather is a common topic, betting on the specific high temperature of a specific city on a specific day is a niche derivative market. It lacks the broad public participation of elections or major sports events, placing it in the upper-middle range of exoticism.

Movers

From Mar 17 to Mar 18, 2026, prices for '14°C' and '16°C' surged from ~9c to the 20c-30c range, as capital concentrated on the mild 14-16°C band following the release of 3-day forecasts. From Mar 17 to Mar 18, 2026, prices for extreme options ('10°C or below' and '20°C or higher') crashed from ~43c to under 5c, driven by a correction of initial liquidity pricing and meteorological models ruling out extreme temperatures.

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. Market prices imply the highest probability for 16°C (24.5%) and 14°C (22%), aligning with optimistic forecasts from providers like Meteored. However, the resolution source, Wunderground (IBM), forecasts a much cooler 12°C or 13°C with rain. The market appears to be ignoring the specific bias of the resolution source, leading to an overvaluation of 16°C and undervaluation of 12-13°C.

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 21? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner