All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
22°C
YesNo
23°C
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
18°C
YesNo
24°C or higher
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
14°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
10 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the latest weather forecast data (Resolution Source: Wunderground), the high temperature for Madrid on March 22 is forecast to be between 18°C (64°F) and 19°C (67°F). Specific forecasts indicate a sunny Sunday with highs around 18°C. However, the prediction market currently prices 20°C and 21°C as the favorites (17.5c each), showing a significant deviation from meteorological data. Given the forecast error margin, 18°C and 19°C represent the core probability distribution, while the market severely overestimates warmer outcomes (20-21°C). Thus, the fair values for 18°C and 19°C are significantly adjusted upwards.
Sign up to view more information
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market currently prices 20°C and 21°C as the most likely outcomes (combined ~35% probability), while mainstream weather forecasts (Wunderground/Google Weather) explicitly predict a high of 18°C (some sources show 19°C). The market is pricing in temperatures 2-3°C higher than the forecast, suggesting participants may be using outdated data or incorrectly betting on an unseasonal warm spell.
