[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest weather forecasts for Madrid Adolfo Suárez Airport (LEMD) on March 23 (comparing GFS vs. ECMWF models), and combine this with the current low trading volume ($2000) and order book depth on Polymarket to analyze if the odds for the consensus temperature range (e.g., 17-19°C) are currently mispriced.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest weather forecasts for Madrid Adolfo Suárez Airport (LEMD) on March 23 (comparing GFS vs. ECMWF models), and combine this with the current low trading volume ($2000) and order book depth on Polymarket to analyze if the odds for the consensus temperature range (e.g., 17-19°C) are currently mispriced.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Rule Pitfall] Verify the historical data recording habits of the resolution source Wunderground for the LEMD station: does the "History/Daily Summary" tab display integer Celsius (e.g., 19°C) or decimals (e.g., 19.4°C), and what is the platform's typical rounding rule when the actual temperature hits exactly X.5°C?

AI-powered analysis for: [Rule Pitfall] Verify the historical data recording habits of the resolution source Wunderground for the LEMD station: does the "History/Daily Summary" tab display integer Celsius (e.g., 19°C) or decimals (e.g., 19.4°C), and what is the platform's typical rounding rule when the actual temperature hits exactly X.5°C?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Trend Analysis] Check the convergence trend of major weather models (GFS, ECMWF, ICON) regarding Madrid's high temperature on March 23 over the past 48 hours; are the predictions currently trending towards "20°C" or being revised downward to "16°C" due to incoming cold fronts?

AI-powered analysis for: [Trend Analysis] Check the convergence trend of major weather models (GFS, ECMWF, ICON) regarding Madrid's high temperature on March 23 over the past 48 hours; are the predictions currently trending towards "20°C" or being revised downward to "16°C" due to incoming cold fronts?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$4,177 Vol|

3 days 16 hrs

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 23? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

18°C

YesNo

13¢

87¢

30¢

70¢

+17¢

0¢

22°C

YesNo

14¢

86¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+11¢

24°C or higher

YesNo

13¢

87¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+11¢

16°C

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+10.5¢

15°C

YesNo

8.5¢

91.5¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+7.5¢

23°C

YesNo

8.5¢

91.5¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+5.5¢

14°C or below

YesNo

4.5¢

95.5¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+3.5¢

21°C

YesNo

9¢

91¢

6¢

94¢

0¢

+3¢

19°C

YesNo

23¢

77¢

25¢

75¢

+2¢

0¢

17°C

YesNo

10.5¢

89.5¢

12¢

88¢

+1.5¢

0¢

20°C

YesNo

16¢

84¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+1¢

AI Insights:

5 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on current forecast data, Google/IBM (which powers Wunderground, the resolution source) predic...

Sign up to view more information

Divergence

Significant divergence. Mainstream weather sources (Google/IBM, AccuWeather) forecast highs between 18°C and 20°C, yet the prediction market prices '24°C or higher' as the top favorite (25.5c). This pricing implies a bet on an extreme heat event that is unsupported by current meteorological data.

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 23? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner