Explain the resolution rules simply: what exactly are the win/loss conditions for this Manila temperature market, and what happens if Wunderground's data is delayed?

AI-powered analysis for: Explain the resolution rules simply: what exactly are the win/loss conditions for this Manila temperature market, and what happens if Wunderground's data is delayed?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Check the historical maximum temperatures in Manila (NAIA station) on May 23 over the past 5 years. Which temperature range has the highest probability of occurring?

AI-powered analysis for: Check the historical maximum temperatures in Manila (NAIA station) on May 23 over the past 5 years. Which temperature range has the highest probability of occurring?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Verify the data source: How reliable and frequent are the updates for the NAIA (RPLL) station on Wunderground, and is there any risk of the data feed stopping?

AI-powered analysis for: Verify the data source: How reliable and frequent are the updates for the NAIA (RPLL) station on Wunderground, and is there any risk of the data feed stopping?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search the latest PAGASA or mainstream weather forecasts for Manila on May 23. Are there any extreme heat or cooling warnings?

AI-powered analysis for: Search the latest PAGASA or mainstream weather forecasts for Manila on May 23. Are there any extreme heat or cooling warnings?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for bearish arguments on 'why the temperature in Manila on May 23 will NOT reach 38°C or higher', listing the Top 3 reasons to break the echo chamber.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for bearish arguments on 'why the temperature in Manila on May 23 will NOT reach 38°C or higher', listing the Top 3 reasons to break the echo chamber.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Check for discrepancies among weather platforms: Are there significant differences in the high-temperature forecasts for Manila on May 23 between major apps like AccuWeather and The Weather Channel?

AI-powered analysis for: Check for discrepancies among weather platforms: Are there significant differences in the high-temperature forecasts for Manila on May 23 between major apps like AccuWeather and The Weather Channel?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Translate the current odds for each temperature range into intuitive probability metaphors (e.g., 'The market thinks hitting 36°C is as likely as flipping two heads in a row').

AI-powered analysis for: Translate the current odds for each temperature range into intuitive probability metaphors (e.g., 'The market thinks hitting 36°C is as likely as flipping two heads in a row').. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search Twitter/X for discussions on the recent Southeast Asian heatwave, and summarize weather KOLs' bullish/bearish sentiments on Manila's late-May temperatures.

AI-powered analysis for: Search Twitter/X for discussions on the recent Southeast Asian heatwave, and summarize weather KOLs' bullish/bearish sentiments on Manila's late-May temperatures.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Extract discussions from the Polymarket comment section or Discord to summarize the market's current core disagreements regarding 'exactly how hot it will get'.

AI-powered analysis for: Extract discussions from the Polymarket comment section or Discord to summarize the market's current core disagreements regarding 'exactly how hot it will get'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the bid/ask spread and order book depth, qualitatively assess the slippage risk for a $1,000 entry/exit in this Manila temperature market.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the bid/ask spread and order book depth, qualitatively assess the slippage risk for a $1,000 entry/exit in this Manila temperature market.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Determine whether the current market for this temperature event is 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds for average temps) or 'buying a lottery ticket' (low win rate, high odds for extreme temps).

AI-powered analysis for: Determine whether the current market for this temperature event is 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds for average temps) or 'buying a lottery ticket' (low win rate, high odds for extreme temps).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Time decay analysis: As May 23 approaches, if the weather forecast doesn't change drastically, which temperature range holders benefit the most from time decay?

AI-powered analysis for: Time decay analysis: As May 23 approaches, if the weather forecast doesn't change drastically, which temperature range holders benefit the most from time decay?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Analyze the 'randomness vs. predictability' of Manila's weather: To what extent can unexpected late-May thunderstorms uncontrollably affect the daily high?

AI-powered analysis for: Analyze the 'randomness vs. predictability' of Manila's weather: To what extent can unexpected late-May thunderstorms uncontrollably affect the daily high?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Evaluate retail FOMO: Have recent news stories about 'extreme Asian heat' caused certain higher temperature ranges (like 38°C or above) to be overhyped and risky to chase?

AI-powered analysis for: Evaluate retail FOMO: Have recent news stories about 'extreme Asian heat' caused certain higher temperature ranges (like 38°C or above) to be overhyped and risky to chase?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Calculate based on the latest forecast trends and current odds: If the most extreme hot or cold scenario occurs, what should be the logical bottom support price?

AI-powered analysis for: Calculate based on the latest forecast trends and current odds: If the most extreme hot or cold scenario occurs, what should be the logical bottom support price?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Assuming a $1000 investment, calculate the actual ROI for a multi-range hedging strategy in this market after deducting estimated Gas fees and slippage.

AI-powered analysis for: Assuming a $1000 investment, calculate the actual ROI for a multi-range hedging strategy in this market after deducting estimated Gas fees and slippage.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Compare the current odds with standard 'dispute-free' weather forecasts (like PAGASA) to judge if the price discount offsets the risk of Wunderground data revisions.

AI-powered analysis for: Compare the current odds with standard 'dispute-free' weather forecasts (like PAGASA) to judge if the price discount offsets the risk of Wunderground data revisions.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the user's confidence in the specific weather in Manila on May 23, suggest a portfolio allocation percentage using the Kelly criterion.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the user's confidence in the specific weather in Manila on May 23, suggest a portfolio allocation percentage using the Kelly criterion.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Set a strict stop-loss line: Suggest a core weather indicator (e.g., 48-hour precipitation probability > X%) that, if triggered, dictates immediate closure of high-temperature long positions.

AI-powered analysis for: Set a strict stop-loss line: Suggest a core weather indicator (e.g., 48-hour precipitation probability > X%) that, if triggered, dictates immediate closure of high-temperature long positions.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Synthesize a one-page trading plan: For the Manila May 23 temperature event, output a brief strategy including entry rationale, target odds, and invalidation conditions (like sudden forecast shifts).

AI-powered analysis for: Synthesize a one-page trading plan: For the Manila May 23 temperature event, output a brief strategy including entry rationale, target odds, and invalidation conditions (like sudden forecast shifts).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Manila on May 23?

Weather|$26.9k Vol|

3 hrs 59 mins

Highest temperature in Manila on May 23? - AI Found +64.4¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.22 20:56

Top Undervalued

+64.4¢

37°C(No)

+5¢

34°C(Yes)

+4.8¢

38°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Manila on May 23? AI analysis: • +64.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest forecasts from Wunderground and other meteorological sources, the expected high ...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

37°C

YesNo

98.4¢

1.6¢

34¢

66¢

0¢

+64.4¢

34°C

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

5¢

95¢

+5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

This is a standard weather prediction market. While forecasting the exact highest temperature for a specific city on a particular day isn't a mainstream daily conversation topic, it is a common genre in prediction markets and weather derivatives.

Movers

May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The price of the 36°C option surged from 25.5c to 43c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, weather models have converged around 96°F (approx. 35.5°C), making it the most likely rounded outcome. May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The price of the 38°C option plummeted from 23c to 4c, due to updated forecasts showing thunderstorms, which significantly diminishes the chances of extreme heat. May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The 34°C option experienced high volatility, dropping from 17.5c to 3.1c before rebounding to 13.5c, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the cooling effects of cloud cover and rain.