While weather markets are somewhat common on prediction platforms, predicting the exact high temperature in Moscow on a specific day is not something the general public actively thinks about, making it a niche derivative topic.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the prices of the 8°C and 9°C options surged from around 19.5c and 8.0c to over 42.5c and 28c respectively, driven by updated weather forecasts predicting warmer temperatures. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the 4°C, 5°C, and 6°C options plummeted from above 20c to under 5c, as the revised weather models ruled out these cooler temperature ranges.

Forecasting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche prediction market category. While weather markets are not entirely uncommon on betting platforms, it still holds a degree of novelty for the general public to bet on specific daily weather fluctuations.

From April 19, 2026, to April 20, 2026, the price of '19°C' surged from 10.5c to 31.5c due to updated weather forecasts indicating a significantly higher likelihood of the maximum temperature reaching 19°C on April 21. From April 19, 2026, to April 20, 2026, the price of '16°C' plummeted from 26.5c to 7.5c, as the forecasted temperature range shifted upwards closer to the date, drastically reducing the probability of 16°C being the high. From April 19, 2026, to April 20, 2026, the price of '15°C' crashed from 23.0c to 1.6c, as short-term forecasts ruled out such a low maximum temperature. From April 19, 2026, to April 20, 2026, the price of '21°C or higher' dropped sharply from 24.5c to 4.3c because predictions of extreme high temperatures were dismissed by updated meteorological data.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a standard meteorological task, but it remains a relatively niche and somewhat novel topic for general prediction markets compared to politics or finance.

Between April 19 and April 20, 2026, the price of '64°F or higher' plummeted from a peak of 94.5c to 64.5c, while '62-63°F' surged from a low of 2.75c to 24.55c. This was caused by updated weather forecasts indicating a high chance of rain and thunderstorms on April 21, which revised expected high temperatures downward from the 67-69°F range to around 64-66°F, significantly increasing the risk of falling short of the 64°F threshold.

The rules clearly specify the data source (Wunderground for RJTT) and precision (whole degrees Celsius). A notable risk involves Wunderground's frontend Fahrenheit-to-Celsius conversion: due to rounding in the display or underlying data handling, certain whole-number Celsius temperatures might be skipped or misrepresented, potentially causing resolution disputes.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 13.5c to 44.5c, as weather forecast data became more precise approaching the target date, significantly increasing market confidence in this temperature range. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the 25°C option steadily rose from 10.5c to 28.5c, also reflecting a trend in forecasts leaning towards higher temperatures. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the prices for 20°C plummeted from 25.5c to 0.2c, 19°C from 20.5c to 0.45c, and 21°C from 23.5c to 0.45c, as short-term weather forecasts have virtually eliminated the possibility of such low high temperatures.

Betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche weather derivative market. While not entirely uncommon in prediction markets, it is far from a mainstream topic of discussion.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of '41°C' surged from 21c to 48.5c, as weather forecasts became clearer nearing the target date, making 41°C the most likely high temperature. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of '39°C' dropped from 14.5c (peak 19c) to 4.9c, due to generally warmer forecasts drastically reducing the likelihood of lower temperatures. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of '40°C' fluctuated between 29c and 44c, eventually settling at 33.5c, as the market reassessed probabilities between 40°C and 41°C. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of '38°C or below' crashed from 10.5c to 0.8c, reflecting the market's elimination of the probability of extremely low temperatures on the target date.