[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Highest temperature in Miami on March 19' event to analyze the spread and liquidity depth given the extremely low volume ($20), and compare the current odds implied probabilities against the real-time weather forecasts for KMIA from Wunderground and NOAA to assess fair value.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Highest temperature in Miami on March 19' event to analyze the spread and liquidity depth given the extremely low volume ($20), and compare the current odds implied probabilities against the real-time weather forecasts for KMIA from Wunderground and NOAA to assess fair value.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Core News Sourcing] Search for specific high temperature forecasts for Miami International Airport (KMIA) on March 19 from NOAA, AccuWeather, and Weather.com to identify the consensus temperature range across meteorological models, and verify if it aligns with popular options like '82-83°F' or '84°F or higher'.

AI-powered analysis for: [Core News Sourcing] Search for specific high temperature forecasts for Miami International Airport (KMIA) on March 19 from NOAA, AccuWeather, and Weather.com to identify the consensus temperature range across meteorological models, and verify if it aligns with popular options like '82-83°F' or '84°F or higher'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Low Liquidity 'Stink Bid' Strategy] Given the illiquid nature of this market ($20 volume), formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy to calculate the optimal price for placing significantly discounted limit orders on the most likely temperature ranges (e.g., 78-79°F) to capture potential market order slippage or panic selling.

AI-powered analysis for: [Low Liquidity 'Stink Bid' Strategy] Given the illiquid nature of this market ($20 volume), formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy to calculate the optimal price for placing significantly discounted limit orders on the most likely temperature ranges (e.g., 78-79°F) to capture potential market order slippage or panic selling.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$30.3k Vol|

14 hrs 32 mins

Highest temperature in Miami on March 19? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

74-75°F

YesNo

39.5¢

60.5¢

45¢

55¢

+5.5¢

0¢

72-73°F

YesNo

5.5¢

94.5¢

8¢

92¢

+2.5¢

0¢

76-77°F

YesNo

37¢

63¢

35¢

65¢

0¢

+2¢

82-83°F

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.9¢

80-81°F

YesNo

1.7¢

98.3¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.7¢

70-71°F

YesNo

1.6¢

98.4¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.6¢

68-69°F

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.6¢

84°F or higher

YesNo

0.45¢

99.55¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.4¢

65°F or below

YesNo

0.3¢

99.7¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

66-67°F

YesNo

0.3¢

99.7¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

78-79°F

YesNo

10¢

90¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

AI Insights:

8 minutes ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on the latest weather forecasts (including Weather.com and NWS discussions), the high temperature for Miami on March 19 is forecasted to peak around 73°F to 74°F. NWS explicitly notes highs in the 'low to middle 70s' for the east coast metro, strongly pointing to the 72-75°F range. Given the price collapse of 72-73°F in the last 24 hours, the market has effectively ruled out the lower end (73°F and below), betting instead on a solid rebound after the cold front. Specific digital forecasts frequently cite 74°F, making '74-75°F' the most fundamentally sound option. However, the market's pricing of '76-77°F' (37¢) is nearly equal to '74-75°F', indicating substantial hedging on the risk that clearer skies could push temps to 76°F. Thus, 74-75°F is assigned the highest fair value, while acknowledging 76-77°F as a strong contender.

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Movers

March 17 - March 18, 2026, the price of 76-77°F climbed steadily from 28c to 37c, as the market began betting on a stronger-than-expected temperature rebound post-cold front, shifting risk appetite from the cool side to the warm side. March 17 - March 18, 2026, the price of 72-73°F crashed from 21c to 5.5c, as weather models clarified that highs would likely exceed 73°F, causing a mass exodus of defensive positions. March 16 - March 17, 2026, the price of 74-75°F dipped briefly to the 23c-29c range before rebounding to 39.5c on March 18, indicating the market reaffirmed this band as the core consensus after a period of uncertainty.

Highest temperature in Miami on March 19? - AI Odds Analysis

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