Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth for the 'Highest temperature in Miami' event, compare the current odds against the latest daily high forecast from Wunderground (the resolution source) and NWS for March 21, and assess if the favorite options (e.g., 78-79°F) are fairly priced.

AI-powered analysis for: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth for the 'Highest temperature in Miami' event, compare the current odds against the latest daily high forecast from Wunderground (the resolution source) and NWS for March 21, and assess if the favorite options (e.g., 78-79°F) are fairly priced.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for historical daily high temperatures recorded at Miami International Airport (KMIA) on March 21st over the past 10 years to calculate the actual historical frequency of the temperature falling within the '78-79°F' or '80-81°F' ranges to establish a statistical baseline.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for historical daily high temperatures recorded at Miami International Airport (KMIA) on March 21st over the past 10 years to calculate the actual historical frequency of the temperature falling within the '78-79°F' or '80-81°F' ranges to establish a statistical baseline.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low trading volume ($395), analyze the current bid-ask spread and evaluate the viability of a 'Stink Bid' strategy—placing low-priced limit buy orders on plausible ranges like '76-77°F' or '82-83°F' to catch potential volatility from forecast updates or liquidity crunches.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low trading volume ($395), analyze the current bid-ask spread and evaluate the viability of a 'Stink Bid' strategy—placing low-priced limit buy orders on plausible ranges like '76-77°F' or '82-83°F' to catch potential volatility from forecast updates or liquidity crunches.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$3,022 Vol|

2 days 14 hrs

Highest temperature in Miami on March 21? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

80-81°F

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

28¢

72¢

+15.5¢

0¢

84-85°F

YesNo

10¢

90¢

4¢

96¢

0¢

+6¢

72-73°F

YesNo

7.5¢

92.5¢

4¢

96¢

0¢

+3.5¢

76-77°F

YesNo

18¢

82¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+3¢

86°F or higher

YesNo

3.1¢

96.9¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+2.1¢

82-83°F

YesNo

11¢

89¢

12¢

88¢

+1¢

0¢

78-79°F

YesNo

26¢

74¢

25¢

75¢

0¢

+1¢

74-75°F

YesNo

9¢

91¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+1¢

70-71°F

YesNo

2.95¢

97.05¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+0.9¢

68-69°F

YesNo

1.5¢

98.5¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.5¢

67°F or below

YesNo

0.55¢

99.45¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.5¢

AI Insights:

4 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

While commercial weather apps (Google, AccuWeather) forecast a high of around 77-78°F for Miami on March 21, the National Weather Service (NWS) Area Forecast Discussion from March 17 explicitly predicts a warming trend with highs returning to the 'low to mid 80s' over the weekend due to building high pressure and southeasterly flow. Synoptic setups like this often outperform conservative model blends. The market is currently anchored to the 76-79°F range, undervaluing the NWS target of 80-81°F and potentially 82-83°F. The fair value model shifts probability density towards the warmer 80s.

Exotics

This is a typical weather derivative market. While people care about weather, betting on the exact high temperature for a specific day and location is relatively niche and vertical, often categorized as novelty or specific hedging rather than a mainstream topic.

Movers

March 17, 2026, 13:20-15:30, the '84-85°F' option spiked from 16.5c to 35c and immediately crashed back to 15c, likely caused by a liquidity vacuum from a large market order or a reaction to erroneous model data. March 17-18, 2026, the '78-79°F' option rose steadily from 18c to 31.5c (settling at 27c). This shift reflects the market pricing in the post-frontal warming trend, moving capital from cooler brackets (70-75°F) to warmer ones, though it has not yet fully embraced the NWS forecast of temps reaching the 80s.

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream commercial weather apps (AccuWeather, Google/Weather.com) forecast a high of 77°F or 78°F, aligning perfectly with the prediction market's favorite buckets (78-79°F and 76-77°F). Conversely, the authoritative NWS Area Forecast Discussion explicitly predicts highs returning to the 'low to mid 80s' for the weekend. This conflict between official meteorological text analysis and commercial app algorithms creates a dislocation between market pricing and the potential meteorological reality.

Highest temperature in Miami on March 21? - AI Odds Analysis

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