As the settlement date (March 25) approaches, weather models (AccuWeather, Wunderground) for Madrid ...

2026-03-21 to 2026-03-22, the price of '24°C or higher' crashed from 25.5c to 3c, while '20°C', '21°C', and '22°C' all surged by over 10c (e.g., 21°C rose from 17.5c to 32.5c). The reason is that as the forecast date approached, weather models confirmed a mild warming trend (around 21-22 degrees), prompting the market to rapidly correct its overbet on extreme heat and consolidate liquidity into the high-probability range.

As of March 22, major meteorological models forecast the high temperature for Seattle on March 25 to...

From early morning to evening on March 22, 2026, the price of '54-55°F' dropped from 20.5c to 9c, likely because warmer forecast models (Google/IBM) adjusted downwards or the market consolidated around the NWS 52°F consensus. Between March 21 and March 22, 2026, '48-49°F' experienced significant volatility, crashing from 30c to 17.5c before rebounding to 32.5c, reflecting extreme market uncertainty about whether rain will suppress temperatures significantly below model forecasts.

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market currently prices '48-49°F' as a top favorite (tied with '50-51°F'), implying an expectation of temps below 50°F. However, official forecasts from NWS and AccuWeather both explicitly state a high of 52°F, with KING 5 at 51°F. No major weather source supports a high of 49°F or lower. Market pricing is disconnected from scientific forecast data, likely driven by retail intuition equating rain with significantly colder temperatures.

While official forecasts from NWS and AccuWeather consistently point to a high in the 62-65°F range ...

March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '58°F or higher' experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 98c to 53c before sharply rebounding to 97c. The sell-off was triggered by Sunday model runs suggesting a strong 'Cold Air Damming' (CAD) wedge with rain could cap highs in the 50s. Confidence was restored after the latest NWS discussion reaffirmed a forecast in the 'low to mid 60s' and downplayed the severity of the wedge, causing a V-shaped price recovery.

There is a divergence in pricing confidence. While the consensus forecast (62-64°F) is indeed above 58°F, the buffer is only 4-6 degrees. Given that the standard error for 48-hour forecasts is roughly 3 degrees and Atlanta's 'wedge' effect can suppress temps by 5-10 degrees, the market's pricing (97% probability) effectively treats this as a 'lock'. This ignores significant left-tail risk. A rational probability model would assign a 5-10% chance to the wedge scenario causing a miss.

According to the latest Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) 9-day forecast issued on March 22, the weather f...

March 22, 2026, 00:35 - 03:50: The price of '20°C' crashed from 16.5c to 1.5c. This correction occurred as the market finally priced out the possibility of cold weather in alignment with forecasts, fixing a previously absurd valuation. March 21, 2026, 14:50 - 21:20: '28°C or higher' surged from 32c to 50.5c, a rational reaction to HKO's forecast update mentioning 'Hot' weather. However, it subsequently retraced to 32c on March 22, indicating profit-taking or wavering market confidence.

Significant divergence exists. The mainstream view (HKO Forecast) explicitly predicts 'Hot' weather for March 25 with a range of 22-28°C, and district highs reaching 30°C. This strongly implies the daily maximum will land in the 27°C or 28°C+ range. However, the market currently prices '28°C or higher' at only 32%, far below its implied fair probability of ~50%, while leaving unreasonable premium on lower temperatures like 23°C-25°C.

According to the latest weather forecasts (including Google Weather/IBM, Meteoprog, etc.), the highe...

From March 22, 2026, to March 23, 2026, the price of '16°C or higher' plummeted from 50c to 25c, as forecasts solidified closer to the date, revealing temperatures far below the initial heatwave expectations (which may have been misled by general Seoul spring warming trends). From March 22, 2026, to March 23, 2026, the price of '14°C' dropped from 35.5c to 23c, as the market began to correct its overbetting on high temperatures, though the correction still lags behind the actual forecast data.

There is an extreme divergence. Market pricing implies a ~66% probability of temperatures exceeding 14°C, suggesting a significant warm spell. However, mainstream meteorological models (Google/IBM, Meteoprog) consistently forecast a high of only 9°C-10°C for Incheon Airport, with westerly winds (sea breeze) likely suppressing temperatures further. The market pricing deviates from scientific forecasts by a massive margin of approximately 5-7°C.