The latest weather forecasts (e.g., Wunderground, AccuWeather, Time and Date) show a significant war...

Between 2026-03-27 03:40 and 2026-03-27 17:45, the price of the 20°C option surged from 11c to 36.5c, and the 21°C option jumped from 3.5c to 28.2c, while the 18°C option plummeted from 36.5c to 7.5c. This was driven by meteorological models significantly upgrading the high-temperature forecast for Shanghai on March 28. Between 2026-03-26 01:40 and 2026-03-26 07:05, the price of the 18°C option surged from 27.5c to 40.5c, driven by updated meteorological models converging tightly around this temperature. Between 2026-03-25 15:55 and 2026-03-26 02:45, the price of the 19°C option plunged from 29.5c to 15.5c, as some short-term forecasts slightly lowered the expected high, causing capital to rebalance across adjacent temperature ranges.

Recent price trends indicate a strong market shift towards extreme highs. The 80°F+ option has surge...

March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026: The price of '80°F or higher' surged from 14.5c to a peak of 39.5c (currently ~35c) due to short-term weather models significantly upgrading Saturday's high temperature forecast driven by a stronger-than-expected high-pressure ridge. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026: The price of '74-75°F' plummeted from 27.5c to 10c as the previously forecasted mild warmup was replaced by a more aggressive heat projection, drastically reducing the probability of hitting this lower bucket.

Current market prices show Jannik Sinner dominating at 79c. His strong track record at the Miami Ope...

March 23, 2026 - March 26, 2026: Jannik Sinner's price surged from 68.5c to 79c, driven by the consolidation of liquidity into the sole super-favorite as the tournament progressed and key rivals exited, significantly increasing certainty. March 23, 2026 - March 26, 2026: Arthur Fils's price fluctuated upward from 5.15c to 8.35c (peaking at 11.5c), as his upset potential attracted capital seeking high-odds hedges. March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026: Jannik Sinner's price surged continuously from 48c to 75c, driven by the consolidation of liquidity into the sole super-favorite as the tournament progressed and key rivals exited, significantly increasing certainty. March 21, 2026 - March 24, 2026: Alexander Zverev's price crashed from 25.5c to 6.45c, reflecting a decline in market confidence and a massive liquidity drain caused by the siphoning effect towards Sinner. March 21, 2026 - March 23, 2026: Prices for players like Jiri Lehecka and Frances Tiafoe corrected drastically from anomalous highs of ~49c down to single digits, highly likely due to early illiquidity or the normalization of data initialization errors.

Based on the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on March 28 is e...

This is a prediction market for weather data at a specific location and date. While weather forecasting is common, betting on it falls under 'Novelty Markets,' less mainstream than elections or sports. However, since weather derivatives exist in finance, its exotic nature is moderate.

March 24 - March 26, 2026: The prices of extreme options '11°C or below' and '21°C or higher' plummeted from 25.5c to under 6c. This happened because updated weather forecasts ruled out extreme temperature deviations as the target date approached. March 24 - March 26, 2026: The prices for '17°C' and '18°C' surged from roughly 17c to over 32c, as the latest meteorological data (e.g., AccuWeather forecasting 64°F/17.8°C) locked them in as the most likely outcomes.

According to the latest meteorological forecasts (including Google Weather and Met Office), the high...

From March 24 to March 26, 2026, the price of the 17°C option climbed steadily from 18c to 36.5c, and the 18°C option also saw significant volatility (peaking at 31c from 17.5c). This was driven by increasing certainty in meteorological models projecting temperatures around 17°C as the date approaches. From March 24 to March 26, 2026, extreme temperature options (such as 21°C or higher, 12°C, 13°C, 14°C, 15°C) experienced sharp declines (>10c). Notably, '21°C or higher' plunged from 25.5c to around 3c, as early weather uncertainty was eliminated, leaving extreme temperature scenarios highly unlikely.