April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of 16°C rose from around 32c to 45.5c, while 15°C dropped from 41.5c to 30.5c. This was driven by the latest same-day weather forecasts which slightly upgraded the expected high, indicating a greater likelihood of hitting 16°C. April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026, no single massive spike >10c occurred, but as forecast models converged, options for 13°C and 14°C steadily declined, solidifying 15°C as the initial market favorite.

While weather forecasts are a part of daily life and not extremely bizarre, placing bets on the exact integer maximum temperature for a specific city on a specific date is still a relatively niche market for regular users not involved in weather derivatives.

April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 11°C option surged from 30.5c to 65.5c, while the 10°C option plummeted from 42.5c to 2.3c. This was driven by real-time temperature observations and short-term forecasts confirming the daily high would exceed 10°C and settle in the 11-12°C range. April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the price of the 10°C option rose from 9c to 42.5c, as earlier forecasts suggested cooler air might suppress the daytime peak.

Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a specific date is a somewhat niche daily event in prediction markets. It appeals to a smaller audience but is not completely bizarre.

2026-04-23 to 2026-04-24, the price of '21°C' surged from ~27c to over 99c, while '22°C' plunged from 36c to near 0c. This is because the actual daytime temperatures for April 24 in Busan were recorded, confirming the daily high peaked at 21°C, and the market priced in this deterministic resolution.

April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of '31°C or higher' surged from 81.6c to 95.4c. This was driven by the increasing certainty in weather forecasts as the resolution date approached, significantly boosting market confidence in temperatures reaching 31°C or more. April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026, prices for '30°C' and lower options generally experienced minor declines, primarily due to the crowding-out effect caused by the rising price of the dominant option '31°C or higher'.

Predicting the highest temperature for a specific city on a given day is a typical weather-based prediction market. While not as universally mainstream as political elections, it is a fairly common novelty category on prediction platforms.

April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the Yes price for the 35°C option surged from 4.5c to 99.85c. The reason is that the actual maximum temperature in Kuala Lumpur on April 24 was recorded at 35°C, and the market quickly priced in this factual outcome. Over the past 3 days, other temperature options dropped significantly as the day's high was established.