While weather forecasting is a common daily topic, betting on the precise highest temperature at a specific airport in Milan on a particular date is a typical niche prediction market mechanic. The general public rarely ponders meteorological questions with this level of specificity.

From April 4, 2026, to April 5, 2026, the price of '24°C' surged from 21.5c to 61.5c, while '23°C' plummeted from 48.5c to 10c (before rebounding to 30.5c), and '25°C' temporarily rose to 25.9c. This occurred because, on the day of settlement, real-time meteorological observations and intraday forecasts indicated a faster-than-expected temperature rise, greatly increasing the probability of hitting 24°C. From April 3, 2026, to April 3, 2026, the price of '23°C' surged from 27c to 45c. The reason is that as April 5 approached, weather forecasting models increasingly pointed to 23°C as the expected high, leading to a significant influx of capital. From April 1, 2026, to April 2, 2026, '16°C or below' plummeted from 26c to less than 1c, and '26°C or higher' dropped from 25c to around 5c, while '22°C' increased from 18c to 29.5c. As the settlement date approached, weather models stabilized around 22°C, causing the probabilities of extreme temperatures to converge significantly.