All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
16°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
18°C or higher
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
8°C or below
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 23:52 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As the target date (March 19) approaches, the accuracy of meteorological models (like GFS and ECMWF) increases significantly. The latest short-range forecasts indicate clear skies and a warming trend for Milan Malpensa, with the maximum temperature likely landing at 17°C or 18°C. The market has corrected from its previous disordered state, with 17°C and 18°C+ now leading. Given the volatility of spring temperatures and the fact that '18°C or higher' captures the long tail of all higher outcomes, this option warrants an equal premium to 17°C, with 16°C serving as the primary downside hedge.
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Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, prices for all lower temperature options (9°C to 14°C) crashed from approximately 26c to under 2c, while 15°C dropped from 26c to 13.5c. The reason is a massive market correction from a previously highly inefficient state (where all options were mispriced at ~26c). As weather forecasts confirmed a warm front, capital rapidly fled the impossible low-temperature outcomes and consolidated into the 16°C-18°C range.
