All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
15°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
16°C or higher
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
6°C or below
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
5 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The latest forecast from the primary resolution source, Google/Wunderground (as of March 18), explicitly predicts a high of 15°C (59°F) for Milan on March 21. Other major sources like AccuWeather support this warming trend (predicting ~15.5°C). However, the market is currently overpricing '13°C' and '14°C' (combined ~53%), seemingly reacting to older cooler forecasts or over-hedging downside rain risk. Given the resolution source aligns on 15°C, this option (currently trading at 20¢) is significantly undervalued and represents the highest fair value.
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026: The market experienced a sharp reversal. '16°C or higher' dropped from ~31¢ to the 20-25¢ range, while '13°C' and '14°C' surged from ~11¢ to 25-28¢. This shift was likely driven by corrections to early warm forecasts, with the market reacting to potential cold front or rain signals, causing capital to rotate from high to moderate temperature options. Notably, '15°C' touched a high of 30.5¢ in the afternoon of March 18 before crashing to 20¢ shortly after, indicating extreme volatility.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. While the Google/Wunderground (resolution source) forecast currently stands at 15°C, the prediction market favors '14°C' (28¢) and '13°C' (25¢), with '15°C' trading lower at 20¢. The market pricing implies a temperature 1-2 degrees cooler than the resolution source's forecast, likely due to traders over-weighting the cooling effect of potential rain or relying on cooler, non-resolution source models.
