Moderate novelty. While weather forecasts are part of daily life, predicting the exact highest temperature for a specific date at a specific weather station is a niche data-driven guessing game that the general public doesn't typically ponder.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the 14°C option plummeted from 32c to 11.5c, while the 12°C option rose from 23.5c to 42.5c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approaches, the latest weather forecasts further lowered the expected high temperature, shifting market expectations toward cooler temperatures (like 12°C) and significantly cooling expectations for higher ones (14°C and above). May 9, 2026 - May 11, 2026, no options experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents. Market expectations regarding the weather forecast remained stable.

Moderate risk. Resolution relies on a specific external tracker (xtracker). The rules regarding replies (only main feed replies count) and deleted posts (must remain for ~5 mins to be captured) are complex and may cause discrepancies between the tracker and user observations.

High novelty. This is a typical entertainment and crypto-community-focused novelty market. Outside of specific prediction market participants, the general public does not naturally ponder or predict the exact number of tweets an individual makes over a random 2-day period.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the '<40' option dropped significantly from a high of 68.5c to 42.5c (currently recovering to ~50c), while the '40-64' option rebounded strongly from 23c to 42.5c. The reason is that over time and with the recovery of his posting rhythm, market expectations corrected, anticipating Musk's posting pace to likely bounce back and stabilize in or near the 40-64 range. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the '<40' option surged from 46c to 68.5c, while the '40-64' option plummeted from 45.5c to 23c. This is because, approaching the statistical window, the market observed a lower recent posting frequency from Musk, thus significantly increasing the probability expectations for the lowest volume bracket.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026: The Yes price for 19°C dropped from 35c to 13c, while the Yes price for 20°C surged from 12.5c to 33c, and 21°C rose from 3.5c to 19c. This shift was largely due to updated weather forecast models predicting slightly warmer overnight lows as the date approached. May 10, 2026 - May 12, 2026: Prices of all options remained relatively stable, with no option experiencing a fluctuation of more than 10 cents.

While weather-related betting or derivatives exist, predicting the precise daily minimum temperature range for a specific city on a given day remains a relatively niche, random, and somewhat novelty topic for the general public.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of '27°C or higher' briefly spiked to 24.75c before crashing to 4.85c, as weather forecasts ruled out anomalous high temperatures; similarly, '26°C' fluctuated from a peak of 21.5c down to 3.75c. May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of '22°C' dropped significantly from 18.5c to 3.5c, as the likelihood of cold fronts diminished closer to the prediction date, leading the market to quickly correct its expectations for lower temperatures. No other options have experienced a sustained unilateral price movement of more than 10c recently. Market prices reflect gradual adjustments to upcoming temperature forecasts without any drastic shifts caused by extreme sudden weather alerts.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the 11°C option surged from 7.15c to a peak of 22.6c due to divergences in short-term weather models regarding the intensity of the cold front, with some models lowering the expected temperature. May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the 14°C option dropped from 15.5c to 6.5c, as updated meteorological data increasingly ruled out the possibility of reaching 14°C.