This is a highly niche and trivial topic. The general public and mainstream media would never naturally wonder or predict the exact number of times the White House account tweets in a specific week. It is a purely manufactured betting market for high-frequency trading.

April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 36.5c to 4.5c, because as weekend data accumulated, the posting rate stabilized, significantly reducing the likelihood of reaching an extremely high total (200+). April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 12c to 26.5c (later falling to 23c), because as the 200+ probability dropped, some of those extreme expectations shifted to this second-highest range. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 43c to 28c, because the actual rate leaned slightly towards higher ranges (160-179), further compressing the probability of this upper-middle range. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 28c to 5.5c, as the high posting frequency caused a sharp drop in the probability of landing in this relatively lower tier. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option plummeted from 25.5c to 1.45c, because the high frequency of tweets from the White House makes it highly likely that the total will exceed this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 25.5c to 6.5c, also due to the high tweet frequency causing a sharp drop in the probability of this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.05c, because the total number of tweets has already far exceeded this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 60-79 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.2c, because the total number of tweets has already exceeded this range.

Predicting the exact numerical bucket of posts a politician makes on a specific social media platform over a single week is highly granular and mostly functions as a degenerate betting market rather than a topic of serious mainstream interest.

April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026: The 60-79 bracket dropped from 18.5c to 4.3c. This was caused by the release of actual posting data, where the pace made reaching such a low total highly unlikely, prompting a rapid capital exit from extreme brackets. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026: The 140-159 bracket plunged from 12.15c to 2.2c. This was caused by the release of the first day's actual posting data, where the pace made reaching such a high total highly unlikely, prompting a rapid capital exit from extreme brackets. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026: The 60-79 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 11c, the 120-139 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 15c, and the 140-159 bracket plunged from 26.5c to 4.5c. This is because multiple brackets initially shared an anomalously identical price (26.5c) due to early illiquidity. As market makers and traders stepped in, a clearer consensus formed around the 80-119 range, causing outlier brackets to correct sharply downwards. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026: The 80-99 bracket surged from 30c to 42.5c, before settling back to 35c on the 10th. This movement reflects an initial strong consensus on this median range, which later saw some capital shift towards adjacent high-probability brackets like 100-119 as the tracking period approached.

The title simply says 'tweets', but the rules explicitly exclude standard 'replies', which make up a massive portion of Musk's activity, creating a counter-intuitive pitfall. Additionally, resolution relies heavily on a specific custom tracker (xtracker), introducing technical risks of missed counts or downtime, especially for deleted posts.

This is a highly typical long-tail novelty market. Outside of prediction market degens, nobody naturally contemplates or calculates the exact number of times a specific celebrity posts on social media during a random week. It is purely for entertainment.

April 12, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '260-279' option plummeted from 25.5c to 7.5c, as a sharp increase in Musk's posting frequency made it highly likely this range would be surpassed. April 12, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '280-299' option plummeted from 21.5c to 9.5c, because a further acceleration in posting volumes meant projected totals are likely to breach this bracket. April 12, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '300-319' option surged from 6.5c to 18c, as the substantially increased posting speed shifted market expectations into this range. April 12, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '320-339' option surged from 3.35c to 14.1c, as the ongoing trend of high-frequency posts pushed up the likelihood of finishing in higher ranges. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '240-259' option plummeted from 32.5c to 3.8c, as a noticeable increase in posting frequency over the weekend drastically reduced the likelihood of hitting this range. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '280-299' option surged from 11.5c to 21.5c, due to a significant increase in real-time posts, shifting the projected total into higher brackets. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '320-339' option surged from 3.2c to 12.65c, as recent high-frequency posting sharply increased the probability of higher ranges. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '220-239' option fell from 19.5c to 6.5c, because the real-time tracking indicated an increased posting rate, reducing the probability of finishing in lower ranges. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the '240-259' option surged from 22.5c to 32.5c, as the accumulation of real-time tracking data caused market expectations to heavily concentrate in this range through linear extrapolation. April 7, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the '220-239' option rose from 9.5c to around 19.5c, as tracking data indicated a slightly lower posting frequency than initially expected, causing a leftward shift in the distribution.

April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, prices for multiple players including Alex Bregman, Ty France, and Cal Raleigh spiked from 28c-31c to 41c-42c. This is due to extremely poor market liquidity where a few small orders or removed maker orders caused massive volatility across the board, rather than any fundamental changes. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, all top options experienced a universal drop of 10c-15c (e.g., Andrés Giménez falling from 40.5c to 28.5c), again attributable to market makers adjusting spreads or irrational liquidity gaps.

There is a severe structural divergence between the market and reality. Each of the 21 candidates is priced at a near 40% chance of winning, creating a total implied probability exceeding 800%. Mainstream sports media and prediction models rarely give any single defender more than a 15% chance for a Platinum Glove at the start of a season. This is purely a pricing distortion caused by a lack of automated market makers and arbitrageurs in an early-stage market.

The market currently places higher probabilities on 25°C (41.5%) and 26°C (30.5%), whereas mainstream meteorological forecasts strongly point toward 24°C. Furthermore, the massive pricing inefficiency (Yes probabilities summing to 230%) indicates that the current quotes are driven by illiquidity or irrational trading rather than actual weather fundamentals.