With about 1 day left until resolution, the Yes price for 'SWIM - BTS' has reached 99.4c, virtually ...

With less than 2 days to resolution, prices are highly concentrated in the 39.5-39.9 and 40.0-40.4 b...

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026: The '39.5-39.9' bracket rose from 32c to 49c, while '40.0-40.4' dropped from 40.5c to 24.5c. This was driven by the latest polling data failing to secure the average above 40% as the resolution date approaches, causing market expectations to converge towards the 39.5-39.9 range. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026: The '40.0-40.4' bracket surged from 17c to 45c, while '39.0-39.4' plummeted from 32c to 7c and '39.5-39.9' dropped from 52.5c to 39.5c. This was driven by newly processed polling data pushing the moving average slightly upward across the 40% threshold, prompting a rapid upward revision in market expectations. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026: The '39.5-39.9' bracket retracted from 52.5c to 32c, while the '40.0-40.4' bracket rebounded from 17c to 32.5c. This was driven by minor adjustments in the polling average as new data was processed, causing the market to become split again on whether the final number will land just above or below 40%. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The '40.0-40.4' bracket collapsed from 76.5c to 17c, while the '39.5-39.9' and '39.0-39.4' brackets surged from 13c and 6c to peak at 52.5c and 37.5c respectively. This was driven by new, lower approval polls entering the Silver Bulletin over the weekend, causing a distinct downward shift in the model's trendline. March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026: Massive volatility occurred across all brackets. The '40.0-40.4' option surged from 41c to a peak of 75c, while lower brackets like '<39.0' and '39.0-39.4' plummeted. This was driven by a new data point update in the Silver Bulletin model, causing the market to rapidly converge around the 40% mark, followed by a slight correction as traders reassessed potential residual polling variance.

Based on the current YES prices, the sum significantly exceeds 100 (around 172.5). Since only one op...

This is a highly niche and localized topic. Framing NYC municipal repair projects as a bracket-style 'Madness' competition is a novel concept. The general public would almost never proactively care about or predict such trivial, localized civic issues.

Recent data indicates that vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz have significantly decreased...

While the status of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is critical for geopolitics and energy markets, predicting the exact weekly transit calls published by the IMF is a niche, wonky topic primarily followed by macro and geopolitical analysts rather than the general public.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical maritime oil chokepoint. An extreme drop in transit volume (e.g., the '<10' option) would strongly imply a severe geopolitical crisis, embargo, or military blockade in the region, which would trigger a massive upward price shock in Crude Oil markets.

From March 30, 2026, to April 1, 2026, the '<10' option plummeted from 38c to 0.75c as actual transit data became available, ruling out the possibility of extremely low volumes. From March 30, 2026, to April 1, 2026, the '45+' option crashed from 41c to 1.95c because incoming data indicated that high transit volumes were highly unlikely. From March 30, 2026, to April 1, 2026, the '40-44' option fell sharply from 26c to 1.7c, also due to actual transit figures failing to reach higher levels.

The current date is April 1, 2026, meaning the tracking period for March has concluded. The '6-9' op...

This is a niche geopolitical/military prediction market. While US military operations in Somalia are real and serious, predicting the exact number of strikes is a specialized topic for the general public, less common than elections or sports.

March 29, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '6-9' surged from 43.5c to 98.9c. As March ended without a flurry of new strikes, it became near certain that the final count would remain squarely in the 6-9 range, prompting the market to price it at near certainty. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '≤5' (historical context) fell from 61.45c to 39.45c, driven by market anticipation that new strikes might be confirmed by AFRICOM before the end of the month, making a total of 6 or more the favorite again. March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of '≤5' surged from 13c to 61.45c, while '6-9' plummeted from 86c to 39.5c. This was driven by the continued lack of new confirmed AFRICOM strikes recently, causing the market to aggressively upgrade expectations that the final count will stall at or below 5. March 21, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '6-9' rose from 56c to 67c, driven by the confirmation of a strike on March 19 against Al-Shabaab. This pushed the running total to ~5, making the 6-9 range the immediate statistical favorite and triggering FOMO buying. March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of '≤5' surged from 20.5c to 39c, while '6-9' plummeted from 47.5c to 32.5c. This volatility was driven by the complete absence of confirmed strikes in the first week of March, causing the market to aggressively downgrade total count expectations.