Resolution heavily relies on a specific tracker (xtracker). The rules contain edge cases regarding 'replies' (counted if recorded on the main feed) and 'deleted posts' (counted if they survive ~5 mins). This creates a risk of divergence between the tracker's captured data and manual counts on the platform.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts by a specific public figure on a specific platform in a given week is a highly niche and novelty entertainment market. The general public rarely considers or tracks such granular details.

April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, prices for almost all options plummeted (e.g., '100-119' dropped from 48c to 22c, '200+' from 48.5c to 5.15c). The reason is that uncalibrated initial liquidity upon market creation pushed all 'Yes' options to roughly 40-50c, which were subsequently corrected by traders pricing in realistic weekly posting volumes.

The rules contain significant caveats: normal replies do not count (which make up the majority of Musk's activity), but main-feed replies do. Deleted posts count if kept for >5 minutes. Furthermore, resolution heavily relies on a specific custom tracker, which may yield vastly different totals compared to a user's manual count on X.

Betting on the exact number of tweets a public figure makes in a specific week is a highly niche and entertainment-driven market. Ordinary people do not ponder the exact statistical count of such trivial daily activities, making it a classic novelty prediction market.

April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of '160-179' steadily climbed from 5.5c to 15.5c, because first-day tracking data showed a lower posting frequency than initial aggressive estimates, prompting traders to revise their median projections downwards. April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, multiple high-frequency options experienced steep declines. The price of '260-279' plummeted from 39.5c to 5.5c, '240-259' dropped from 30c to 10.5c, and '220-239' fell from 30.5c to 14.5c. This was due to significant previous overpricing or speculation; as the tracking period approached, traders re-evaluated Musk's realistic posting frequency, leading to mass sell-offs and a reversion to the mean.

This is a typical celebrity gossip prediction market. While not a mainstream political or economic issue, Rihanna is a superstar whose personal life attracts immense public attention. Topics like celebrity pregnancies are relatively common in prediction markets, placing this in the medium range of novelty.

There is significant ambiguity and rule risk. The rules explicitly validate past controversial instances—where Trump was arguably just scratching his face or adjusting glasses—as qualifying evidence. This lowers the bar significantly; definitive malicious intent is not required. An accidental gesture that visually resembles 'flipping the bird' could resolve the market to 'Yes', creating a trap for those expecting a clear, intentional insult.

This is a quintessential novelty market. Betting on whether a political figure will perform a specific obscene hand gesture falls squarely into the realm of political gossip and entertainment. While consistent with Trump's controversial persona, it is far removed from standard electoral or policy forecasting.