Highest temperature in Munich on April 3?
Weather|$10.2k Vol|
time1 days 22 hrs

Highest temperature in Munich on April 3? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.31 14:37
Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
13°C(No)
+6¢
15°C or higher(No)
+5¢
12°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Munich on April 3? AI analysis: • +8.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Current mainstream weather forecasts predict Munich's high on April 3 to be around 11°C (52°F) [2], ...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?
Weather|$19.7k Vol|
time1 days 22 hrs

Highest temperature in Wellington on April 3?

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
18°C(Yes)
+7¢
20°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast trends and meteorological models, the highest temperature in We...
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Movers
March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '16°C' surged from 11.5c to 36.5c before retracing to 17.5c; concurrently, '22°C or higher' experienced a severe swing, spiking from 12c to 39.5c before dropping back. The reason is likely poor market liquidity approaching the resolution date, coupled with large speculative buys from bettors reacting to minor meteorological model updates, causing temporary extreme price deviations. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '21°C' spiked to 44.5c on March 30 at 07:40 before falling back to the 10-15c range, reflecting brief uncertainty in weather forecasts or large single trades impacting thin liquidity.
AI Analysis
FIFA World Cup Group D Winner
Soccer|$13.7k Vol|
time86 days 10 hrs

FIFA World Cup Group D Winner

Top Undervalued
+8¢
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR(No)
+6.5¢
USA(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As a Pot 1 seed and host nation, the USMNT enjoys structural home-field advantages and schedule bene...
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AI Analysis
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
Culture|$427.3k Vol|
time4 days 22 hrs

"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Top Undervalued
+1.3¢
<160m(Yes)
Arbitrage Opportunity
1¢
Arbitrage
101.3%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy one Yes share of all options Plan Description: The sum of Yes prices across all mutually exclusive options is 98.65c, which is strictly less than t...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
As the movie officially opens (April 1), market capital has reached a strong consensus. The predeces...
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Rule Risk
There is a potential confusion in the rules. The title mentions 'Opening Weekend' (usually Fri-Sun), but the rules explicitly specify using figures for the '5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5)' (Wed-Sun) for resolution. This deviates from standard industry terminology, creating a trap for users who miss the '5-day' definition. Additionally, BoxOfficeMojo figures are subject to frequent revisions.
Hedging
NTDOY
The box office performance of the 'Super Mario' movie is directly linked to Nintendo's (NTDOY) IP licensing revenue and expectations for subsequent game/park synergies. It also affects the entertainment segment performance of Comcast (CMCSA), the parent company of the distributor Universal Pictures. For Nintendo, this is a major validation of IP monetization, and a box office beat could trigger stock price movement.
Movers
March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the '180-190m' option price surged from 15.7c to 36.15c, while the '>200m' option plummeted from 34.5c to 16c. The reason is that, as the actual release date arrived, early presale data caused box office projection models to converge, eliminating extreme overperformance possibilities and accelerating the flow of funds into the core $180M-$190M range. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the '>200m' option price continued to decline from 34.5c to 23c (before slightly rebounding), as mainstream box office tracking agencies stabilized their 5-day opening projections around $175M to $185M, dampening overly high expectations. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the '180-190m' option price fluctuated upward from 12.05c to 27.35c, as capital gradually shifted towards the core range more in line with mainstream forecasting agencies. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the '>200m' option price surged from 24c to 42.5c before dropping back to 30.5c, caused by extremely strong early preview pre-sales triggering a burst of market optimism, which subsequently cooled and returned to rationality. March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the '180-190m' option price surged from 9.1c to 19.85c, driven by capital rotating out of the overly optimistic '>200m' bet and into more conservative yet strong box office ranges. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the '>200m' option experienced a crash, plummeting from 56.5c to 36c, marking a turning point in sentiment from 'guaranteed record-breaker' to 'increased uncertainty'.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
13°C
YesNo
28.5¢
71.5¢
20¢
80¢
+8.5¢
15°C or higher
YesNo
92¢
98¢
+6¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of 11°C dropped significantly from 31c to 12c before recovering to 19.5c, driven by oscillating expectations in short-term weather models regarding the exact peak. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price for 15°C or higher plummeted from 29c to 5c, as updated forecasts confirmed rain and snow with cooling temperatures for early April, ruling out an extreme warm peak. March 29, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price for 7°C dropped from 25.5c to 10.5c, due to updated weather forecasts ruling out extremely low temperatures. March 29, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price for 8°C fell from 25.5c to 15.5c, for similar reasons as forecasts leaned towards warmer conditions. March 29, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price for 13°C decreased from 26c to 17c, likely a short-term volatility adjustment.
Divergence
There is a slight divergence between the market and mainstream weather forecasts. Current Google and major weather forecasts predict a high of around 11°C (52°F) for Munich on April 3 [2], whereas the prediction market assigns an aggregate probability of over 50% to 12°C and 13°C. This divergence likely stems from traders anticipating that actual daily peaks recorded at the specific airport station may slightly exceed macroscopic average forecasts due to microclimate effects or brief afternoon sunbursts.

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