All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
11°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
16°C or higher
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
6°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 20:24 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As the settlement date (March 19) approaches, weather models have highly converged. According to the latest data from Wunderground and Google Weather, the forecast for Munich's high temperature on March 19 is centered around 12°C (approx. 53°F-54°F). Although 13°C saw a price rebound recently, indicating the forecast might be fluctuating near the 12.5°C threshold, the current trend reaffirms 12°C as the strongest anchor. 11°C remains the primary downside hedge, while extreme tail risks (16°C+ and 8°C-) have been effectively eliminated. The market's total premium (sum of Yes prices) is currently too high (~120), so focus should remain on the core options of 12°C and 13°C.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
From March 16 to March 17, 2026, the price of '13°C' experienced significant volatility, surging from 19c to 32.5c before pulling back to 27.5c. The reason is that short-term weather models hovered around the 12.5°C threshold, causing the market to oscillate between 12°C and 13°C, triggering temporary hedging demand for 13°C.
From March 15 to March 16, 2026, the price of '16°C or higher' crashed from 21c to under 3c, while '8°C' fell from 13.5c to 1.5c. The reason is that as the forecast window entered within 48 hours, the temperature range locked into the middle band, effectively eliminating the possibility of extreme heat or cold.
