All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
13°C or higher
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
4°C
YesNo
5°C
YesNo
3°C or below
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
59 minutes ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Consolidating the latest forecasts from AccuWeather (High 52°F/11.1°C) and Weather Underground/Google (High 54°F/12.2°C), the maximum temperature at Munich Airport on March 20 is highly likely to resolve to either 11°C or 12°C. The market is currently assigning a significant premium (32c) to '13°C or higher', which would require temperatures to exceed 12.5°C or 13°C; however, major models predict partly cloudy conditions without the thermal drive for such a spike. Conversely, '11°C' is priced at only 19.5c, which is significantly undervalued given AccuWeather's direct forecast (11.1°C). Fair value is heavily concentrated between 11°C and 12°C.
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Exotics
This is a moderately exotic market. While weather forecasting is a standard topic, predicting the specific high temperature (within a 1-degree range) for a specific location on a specific date is a niche market, typically appealing only to weather enthusiasts or short-term speculators.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '12°C' climbed steadily from 17.5c to 34.5c, while '11°C' fluctuated between 19c and 27c, as weather model consensus (AccuWeather, Google/WU) strongly converged on the 11-12°C range, eliminating earlier uncertainty.
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of '3°C or below' crashed from 40.5c to near 0.5c, and '13°C or higher' dropped from 40.5c to 32c (though remains premium), as updated forecasts completely ruled out extreme cold and squeezed the probability of extreme heat.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists: The market prices '13°C or higher' at 32c, implying a ~32% probability. However, mainstream sources like AccuWeather (52°F/11°C) and Google Weather (54°F/12°C) show maximums below this threshold. The market appears to be hedging a 'warmer-than-expected' tail risk, but this premium is excessive compared to the much higher-certainty options of 11°C (priced at only 19.5c) and 12°C (34.5c).
