All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
14°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
15°C or higher
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
5°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As the event date (March 21) approaches within a 3-day window, meteorological model confidence has significantly increased. Based on Wunderground and major global models (GFS/ECMWF), the maximum temperature in Munich is projected to stabilize in the 10°C - 11°C range. The market has undergone a drastic correction in the last 24 hours; the previously overpriced extreme options (≤5°C and ≥15°C) have collapsed, with liquidity consolidating around the central probability range (9-12°C). Currently, 10°C and 11°C hold the highest fair value.
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Movers
From March 17, 2026, to March 18, 2026, the price of '5°C or below' crashed from 26c to 5.8c, '15°C or higher' crashed from 26c to 7.8c, and '6°C' plummeted from 17.5c to 2.9c. The reason is that as the forecast date approached, the market rapidly shifted from an early 'uniform distribution/blind betting' state (overestimating extremes) to rational pricing based on meteorological forecasts, confirming 9-12°C as the core range.
