Retrieve the latest weather forecast for Munich Airport (EDDM) for March 22, 2026, and given the event is 4 days out with negligible volume ($2.33), analyze the discrepancy between Wunderground's forecast and market implied probabilities to assess liquidity risk and fair value.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest weather forecast for Munich Airport (EDDM) for March 22, 2026, and given the event is 4 days out with negligible volume ($2.33), analyze the discrepancy between Wunderground's forecast and market implied probabilities to assess liquidity risk and fair value.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search and compare hourly temperature forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models for Munich on March 22, specifically looking at the 2 PM - 4 PM peak window, to confirm if any key weather variables like cold fronts or precipitation might suppress the daily high below baseline expectations.

AI-powered analysis for: Search and compare hourly temperature forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models for Munich on March 22, specifically looking at the 2 PM - 4 PM peak window, to confirm if any key weather variables like cold fronts or precipitation might suppress the daily high below baseline expectations.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Considering the market's near-zero liquidity ($2.33), calculate the most probable temperature range based on meteorological models (e.g., 11°C-13°C) and place "Stink Bids" (extremely low limit buy orders) on these outcomes to capture potential mispricing caused by the lack of counterparties.

AI-powered analysis for: Considering the market's near-zero liquidity ($2.33), calculate the most probable temperature range based on meteorological models (e.g., 11°C-13°C) and place "Stink Bids" (extremely low limit buy orders) on these outcomes to capture potential mispricing caused by the lack of counterparties.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$2,345 Vol|

3 days 13 hrs

Highest temperature in Munich on March 22? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

14°C

YesNo

20¢

80¢

4¢

96¢

0¢

+16¢

12°C

YesNo

34.5¢

65.5¢

20¢

80¢

0¢

+14.5¢

13°C

YesNo

22¢

78¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+14¢

10°C

YesNo

6.55¢

93.45¢

20¢

80¢

+13.5¢

0¢

15°C

YesNo

13.5¢

86.5¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+10.5¢

16°C

YesNo

10¢

90¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+8¢

8°C

YesNo

11.5¢

88.5¢

4¢

96¢

0¢

+7.5¢

9°C

YesNo

12¢

88¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+4¢

11°C

YesNo

27¢

73¢

25¢

75¢

0¢

+2¢

7°C or below

YesNo

4.3¢

95.7¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+1.3¢

17°C or higher

YesNo

3¢

97¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

AI Insights:

11 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on live weather forecasts as of March 18, 2026, the high temperature in Munich for March 22 is projected to be around 11°C (Google Weather cites 11°C, others 10-11°C). Given the short-term horizon, the probability distribution should be a bell curve centered at 11°C. The market currently prices extreme outcomes (<7°C and >17°C) at a premium (25.5c), which contradicts meteorological data and suggests irrational hedging or liquidity mispricing. Fair value is heavily concentrated in the 9°C-13°C range.

Sign up to view more information

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. Weather forecasts consistently point to mild weather around 11°C, yet the prediction market exhibits 'dumbbell' pricing, assigning the highest probabilities to extreme cold (<7°C) or heat (>17°C) at 25.5% each, while underpricing the most likely outcome of 11°C at 17.5%. This pricing completely contradicts meteorological consensus.

Highest temperature in Munich on March 22? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner