April 20, 2026 06:58 - 13:28, the price of '72°F or higher' surged from 28c to 47c, driven by updated intra-day high-resolution weather models that revised the high temperature forecast upwards. April 19, 2026 06:03 - April 20, 2026 12:23, the price of '68-69°F' dropped significantly from 39.5c to 16c, reflecting a diminished probability of sub-70°F temps as forecasts updated. April 19, 2026 04:58 - 10:23, the price of '72°F or higher' briefly fell from 35.5c to 13c, as early cloud cover predictions suggested suppressed heating, though this was later corrected.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of 62-63°F surged from 16c to 30.5c before plunging back to 14.5c. This volatility was driven by conflicting weather models revising the expected temperature drop during the incoming cold front. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of 58-59°F climbed from 14.5c to 26c and then retracted to 20.5c, reflecting the forecasts oscillating between a high of 59°F and 61°F.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the 78-79°F option surged from 25c to 46.5c, while the 76-77°F option plummeted from 31.5c to 7c. This was driven by updated weather forecasts which revised the expected high temperature for April 21 upwards to around 78°F, causing market capital to shift towards the higher temperature bracket.

This is a highly specific novelty market. Outside of prediction market participants, the general public rarely cares about, tracks, or predicts the exact range of posts made by the official White House account in a given week.

April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the '180-199' option dropped from 33c to 18c, as posting frequency stabilized over time, cooling expectations for an extremely high post count. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option surged from 20.5c to over 36c, because after the actual first-day posting data was observed, the market deduced that the final total is most likely to fall in this range at the current pace. April 14, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the prices for '100-119' and '120-139' crashed from around 40c to below 10c, while '180-199' and '200+' surged by more than 15c. This is due to a notable increase in the recent posting activity of the White House X account, causing the market to adjust its expectations for the total post count significantly higher.

While weather prediction is an established category in prediction markets, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is still a relatively niche and novelty micro-event compared to mainstream topics.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026: The price of the 29°C option plummeted from 39.5c to 14.5c, and the 30°C option dropped from 16.5c to below 1c. Concurrently, the 27°C and 28°C options surged from 11.5c to 35c and from 32c to 51.5c, respectively. The reason is the updated forecast from the Hong Kong Observatory, which adjusted the expected maximum temperatures downwards due to anticipated clouds and showers, causing a sell-off in higher temperature options and converging expectations toward the 27-28°C range.