All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
42-43°F
YesNo
44-45°F
YesNo
46-47°F
YesNo
40-41°F
YesNo
38-39°F
YesNo
36-37°F
YesNo
48-49°F
YesNo
35°F or below
YesNo
52-53°F
YesNo
54°F or higher
YesNo
50-51°F
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 18:25 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The specific resolution source, Wunderground, currently explicitly forecasts a 'High near 45°F' for LaGuardia Airport on March 19 in its hourly breakdown. AccuWeather and Weather25 corroborate this with forecasts of 44°F, while WeatherShogun predicts 46°F. This creates a strong consensus centering on the 44-45°F bucket. However, the market favors the cooler 42-43°F range (28c), likely reacting to generic search summaries showing 39-42°F rather than the specific resolution source data. Since the resolution relies solely on Wunderground, which points directly to 45°F, the 44-45°F option is significantly undervalued (Current: 26c vs Fair: 40c), while 42-43°F is overpriced.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
March 16-17, 2026, the price of 42-43°F rose steadily from 14.5c to 28c, becoming the new market favorite, as sentiment shifted towards cooler outcomes closer to the date (likely a correction from earlier warm front expectations).
March 16, 2026, the price of 46-47°F retreated from a high of 35c to 18.5c, as updated models suggested the peak temperature might not breach 46°F, causing a liquidation of warmer bets.
March 15, 2026, the price of 44-45°F briefly spiked to 35c before retracing to 26c amidst market disagreement; it now appears potentially oversold.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market currently assigns the highest probability (28%) to the 42-43°F range. However, the specific resolution source, Wunderground, explicitly forecasts a 'High near 45°F', and other authoritative sources (AccuWeather, Weather25) align on 44°F. The market pricing implies a temperature 2-3°F cooler than the resolution source data, presenting an opportunity for traders following the specific source forecast.
