All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
60°F or higher
YesNo
50-51°F
YesNo
52-53°F
YesNo
58-59°F
YesNo
56-57°F
YesNo
54-55°F
YesNo
48-49°F
YesNo
46-47°F
YesNo
42-43°F
YesNo
44-45°F
YesNo
41°F or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
10 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Synthesizing data from AccuWeather (predicting 56°F for KLGA), CBS (predicting 55°F), and NWS (forecasting widespread 50s), the high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on March 21 is most likely to fall within the 52-57°F range. Specific forecasts from AccuWeather (56°F) and CBS (55°F) are higher than the market's current favorite of 50-51°F. The market pricing for 52-53°F (11c) shows an irrational gap compared to its neighbors (25c and 19.5c), violating standard temperature distribution curves. Fair value shifts probability towards the mid-to-high 50s (54-57°F) and corrects the undervaluation of the 52-53°F bucket.
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Movers
On March 18, 2026, the price of the 52-53°F option plummeted from ~27c to 11c, despite forecast data not shifting radically enough to exclude this range, suggesting a liquidity void or overreaction to a specific model run.
On March 17, 2026, the price of the '60°F or higher' option crashed from 25.5c to 8.5c as approaching forecasts from major models (NWS/AccuWeather) consolidated around the 50s, significantly reducing the probability of reaching 60°F.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market is heavily weighting 50-51°F (highest price at 25c), which is colder than major commercial forecasts. AccuWeather specifically predicts 56°F for LaGuardia (KLGA), CBS predicts 55°F, and NWS discussion indicates widespread 50s. The market appears overly conservative or anchored to lower generic app data, ignoring the specific warmer forecasts for the airport.
