Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a relatively niche topic. It is a typical weather prediction market—while certainly not absurd, few people outside of weather enthusiasts or dedicated forecasters would actively think about it.

May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 35°C option surged from 23.5c to 97.4c, while the 36°C option plummeted from 59.5c to 0.4c. The reason is that as May 5 arrived, the gradual release of actual meteorological data confirmed that the highest temperature fell in the 35°C range, breaking the market's previous expectation of 36°C.

Between May 4 and May 5, 2026, the price of the 36°C option surged from 18.5c to 40c as the latest meteorological data indicated a higher potential for extreme temperature peaks. Between May 4 and May 5, 2026, the price of the 33°C option plummeted from 32c to near 0c because the actual temperatures are virtually guaranteed to exceed this range. Between May 4 and May 5, 2026, the price of the 34°C option dropped from 36.5c to 19.5c, showing a market consensus shifting towards 35°C or higher.

Betting on the specific daily high temperature of a city is a typical niche/novelty market. While weather forecasts are universally consumed, financializing them and predicting exact degrees Celsius remains somewhat fringe and entertainment-oriented compared to mainstream macro or political prediction markets.

On May 5, 2026, the price of the 33°C option surged from around 34c to nearly 100c (99.65c), while the 34°C option plummeted from around 27c to 0.4c. This occurred because, as the day progressed and daytime temperatures were actually recorded locally, the daily high was effectively locked in at 33°C, eliminating uncertainty.

May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026: The price of the 28°C option climbed from 30c to 50c as weather forecasting models gained higher confidence that the maximum temperature would hit 82°F (28°C) as the date approached. May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026: The price of the 27°C option plunged from 29.5c to 12c, driven by updated forecasts predicting slightly warmer conditions than initially expected, largely ruling out the chance of the high stalling at 27°C.